Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate
Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate
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DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750
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发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Hannah R. Parker;E. Boyd;R. Cornforth;R. James;F. Otto;M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hannah R. Parker;E. Boyd;R. Cornforth;R. James;F. Otto;M. Allen
2013年，在《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）下建立了华沙气候变化影响损失和损害国际机制（WIM）。对于科学家来说，L&D提出了关于这种影响在多大程度上可归因于人为气候变化的问题，这可能会产生复杂的结果，并在政策竞技场中引起争议。这在概率事件归因（PEA）科学中尤其如此，这是一个快速发展的新领域，评估极端事件概率的变化是否可归因于温室气体排放。如果要负责任地考虑PEA的潜在应用，科学家和决策者之间的对话至关重要。通过文献综述和与支持L&D的科学和政策部门代表的主要利益相关者访谈，本文考虑了两个关键问题。这为深入了解利益相关者的观点提供了机会，首先，与L&D辩论有关的人对PEA的了解和理解有多少？其次，PEA如何告知L&D和更广泛的气候政策？结果显示，气候科学界内部存在辩论，其他利益攸关方对极端事件可归因于气候变化的意义了解有限。然而，利益相关者确实在WIM和更广泛的政策中确定和讨论了PEA的潜在用途，但由于L&D的模糊性，仍然难以探索精确的应用。这意味着利益攸关方需要更好地理解L&D的替代概念和科学的作用，并确定如何最好地利用PEA来支持政策和应对相关挑战。政策相关性WIM的建立是为了解决气候变化的负面影响，但是否需要归因证据来将影响与气候变化联系起来尚未确定，而且也存在争议。利益攸关方对PEA的认识很少，对其作用也没有达成一致意见，这就提出了重要的政策问题。政策制定者，从业者和科学家之间的对话可以帮助建立对PEA的更广泛的理解，以确定它是否相关，并促进其发展和WIM高层决策过程。
In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises questions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stakeholders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges. Policy relevance The WIM was established to address the negative impacts of climate change, but whether attribution evidence will be required to link impacts to climate change is yet to be determined, and also controversial. Stakeholders show little awareness of PEA and agreement on its role, which raises important questions for policy. Dialogue between policymakers, practitioners and scientists could help to build a broader understanding of PEA, to determine whether it is relevant, and facilitate both its development and WIM high level decision-making processes.