Evaluating the impact of climate and underlying surface change on runoff within the Budyko framework a study across 224 catchments in China
Evaluating the impact of climate and underlying surface change on runoff within the Budyko framework a study across 224 catchments in China
复制标题
在 Budyko 框架内评估气候和下垫面变化对径流的影响，一项针对中国 224 个流域的研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.023
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Lei H. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shen Q. N.;Cong Z. T.;Lei H. M.
气候变化和下垫面变化是影响水文循环的两个主要因素。在气候变化方面，降水不仅在幅度上发生变化，而且在强度上也发生变化，这可以用降水深度来表示。为了进一步了解1960-2010年降水量、潜在蒸散量、降水深度和蓄水量的空间变化规律，基于布迪科假设下的Choudhury-Porporato方程，分析了中国流域从干旱到湿润的224个流域。结果表明，松花江流域、辽河流域和海河流域径流变化的主要驱动力是下垫面变化，其他流域的径流变化主要受气候变化的影响。气候变化导致大多数流域的径流增加，但黄河流域和长江流域的一些流域除外。具体地说，降水深度的变化导致几乎每个流域的径流增加，并显示出相当大的贡献率(平均14.8%，在32%的流域大于20%)。降水深度变化的贡献与干旱指数相关性不大，与降水深度趋势显著正相关。研究表明，降水深度是径流变化归因中应考虑的一个重要方面。本研究的发现为布迪科框架下归因分析的未来研究提供了展望。
Climate change and underlying surface change are two main factors affecting the hydrological cycle. In respect of climate change, precipitation alters not only in magnitude, but also in intensity, which can be represented by precipitation depth. To further understand the spatial variation of the impact of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation depth and the water storage capacity during 1960–2010, 224 catchments located from arid areas to humid areas across China were analyzed in this paper based on the Choudhury-Porporato equation within the Budyko hypothesis. The results show that underlying surface change is the major driving force of runoff change in the Songhua Basin, the Liaohe Basin and the Haihe Basin, while climate change dominates runoff change in other basins. Climate change causes runoff increase in most catchments, except for some catchments in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. Specifically, changes in precipitation depth induce runoff increase in almost each catchment and show a considerable contribution rate (14.8% on average, larger than 20% in 32% catchments). The contribution of precipitation depth change has little correlation with the aridity index, while positively correlates to the significance of trend in precipitation depth. This study suggests that precipitation depth is an important aspect that should be taken into consideration in attribution of runoff change. The findings in this study provide a sight for future researches in attribution analysis within the Budyko framework.