Projected Changes in the East Asian Hydrological Cycle for Different Levels of Future Global Warming
Projected Changes in the East Asian Hydrological Cycle for Different Levels of Future Global Warming
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/atmos13030405
复制
发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
A. Chevuturi;N. Klingaman;A. Turner;Liang Guo;P. Vidale
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Chevuturi;N. Klingaman;A. Turner;Liang Guo;P. Vidale
近几十年来，东亚（EA）的水文循环发生了重大变化，并且由于未来的全球变暖，预计还会发生进一步的变化。本研究使用英国气象局统一模型 (MetUM) 全球海洋混合层模型版本 2.0 (GOML2.0) 的模拟，与当前条件进行比较，评估了 EA 水文循环中预计的季节性变化。变暖引起的降水变化的水分来源已在 EA 内的五个水文独特区域中得到确定。由于水文循环加剧，东亚地区降水量随着变暖而增加（东亚地区东南部春季和秋季除外）。水文循环中预计的季节变化通常是非线性的，1.5 ∘C 和 2.0 ∘C 之间的变化率大于变暖 2.0 ∘C 到 3.0 ∘C 之间的变化率。除青藏高原外，变暖引起的降水增加主要与远程水汽辐合增加有关，而不是与局部水汽再循环有关。按方向和通量分量对水分源变化的分解表明，来自西部的变化主要是水分变化，而来自北方的变化更多是由环流驱动的。来自南方的变化是由东亚区南部的水分驱动的，以及东亚区北部的水分和环流变化驱动的。我们的结果强调了由于全球变暖而导致的 EA 水文循环的区域和季节性多样化预计变化，这将有助于针对特定区域的气候缓解政策和实施季节性变化的适应方法。
Recent decades have shown significant changes to the hydrological cycle over East Asia (EA), and further changes are expected due to future global warming. This study evaluates projected seasonal changes in the EA hydrological cycle using simulations that are 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) Global Ocean Mixed Layer model version 2.0 (GOML2.0), compared against present-day conditions. The moisture sources of the warming-induced precipitation changes are identified over five hydrologically unique regions within EA. Precipitation over EA increases with warming (except over southeastern EA in the spring and autumn) due to the intensified hydrological cycle. The projected seasonal changes in the hydrological cycle are usually nonlinear, with the rate of change between 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C larger than the rate of change between 2.0 ∘C and 3.0 ∘C of warming. The warming-induced precipitation increases are mainly associated with an increase in remote moisture convergence rather than local moisture recycling, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Decomposition of the changes in moisture sources by direction and flux component indicate that changes from the west are dominated by changes to moisture and changes from the north are more circulation driven. The changes from the south are moisture driven over southern EA and driven by moisture and circulation change over northern EA. Our results highlight the regionally and seasonally diverse projected changes to the EA hydrological cycle due to global warming, which will be useful for region-specific climate mitigation policies and the implementation of seasonally varying adaptation methods.