Assessing Vulnerable and Strategic Positions in a Criminal Network
Assessing Vulnerable and Strategic Positions in a Criminal Network
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评估犯罪网络中的脆弱和战略地位
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
C. Morselli
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作者：
C. Morselli
本研究重点关注围绕知名犯罪组织（魁北克地狱天使）的非法毒品分销网络中的个人定位。目的是区分在网络成为密集执法调查目标期间处于弱势和/或战略地位的参与者。整个分析过程中使用了两种中心性度量。程度中心性是指围绕参与者的直接接触的数量。介数中心性通过衡量参与者所调解的间接关系的范围来解释参与者的经纪杠杆。最终结果揭示了网络中的不同立场如何影响案件中的司法结果（逮捕）。中心度高的参与者被捕的可能性更大。介数中心性高的参与者被捕的可能性较小。对于执法而言，最重要的是，那些经纪级别高的参与者不太可能是地狱天使的成员，因此表明目标策略必须考虑在任何特定时间代表犯罪者网络的模式，而不是简单地关注犯罪者在犯罪组织中的地位和声誉。
This study focuses on individual positioning within an illegal drug distribution network surrounding a reputed criminal organization (the Quebec Hells Angels). The aim is to distinguish between participants who were positioned vulnerably and/or strategically during a period when the network was targeted by an intensive law-enforcement investigation. Two centrality measures are used throughout the analysis. Degree centrality accounts for the number of direct contacts surrounding a participant. Betweenness centrality accounts for a participant’s brokerage leverage by measuring the scope of indirect relationships that s/he mediates. The final results reveal how differential positions in the network influence the judicial outcomes (arrests) within the case. Participants with high degree centrality were more likely to be arrested. Participants with high betweenness centrality were less likely to be arrested. Most importantly for law-enforcement concerns, those participants with high brokerage level were less likely to be members of the Hells Angels, thus suggesting that targeting strategies must take consider the patterns that represent an offender’s network at any given time, rather than simply focusing on an offender’s status and reputation within a criminal organization.