Adapting agriculture to climate change
Adapting agriculture to climate change
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0701890104
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发表时间：
2007-12-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Meinke, Holger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Howden, S. Mark;Soussana, Jean-Francois;Meinke, Holger
气候变化的强劲趋势已经很明显，发生进一步变化的可能性以及潜在气候影响的规模不断扩大，迫切需要更加连贯地解决农业适应问题。对于现有农业系统的边际变化，有许多潜在的适应方案可供选择，通常是现有气候风险管理的变化。我们表明，在温和的气候变化下，实施这些方案可能会给某些种植系统带来巨大的好处。然而，在更严重的气候变化下，它们的有效性有限。因此，需要考虑对资源配置进行更系统性的改变，例如生产系统和生计的有针对性的多样化。我们认为，要加强适应行动，就必须将气候变化相关问题与气候变化和市场风险等其他风险因素以及可持续发展等其他政策领域结合起来。应对有效适应的诸多障碍需要采取全面、动态的政策方法，涵盖一系列规模和问题，例如，从农民对风险状况变化的理解到建立促进应对策略的有效市场。科学也必须适应。多学科问题需要多学科解决方案，即注重综合科学而不是学科科学，并加强与决策者的互动。这种方法的一个关键组成部分是实施适应评估框架，这些框架是相关的、稳健的，并且易于所有利益相关者、从业者、政策制定者和科学家操作。
The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.