Bayesian model averaging in meta-analysis: vitamin E supplementation and mortality
Bayesian model averaging in meta-analysis: vitamin E supplementation and mortality
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DOI：
10.1177/1740774508101279
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发表时间：
2009-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Newell, Margaret
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berry, Donold;Wathen, J. Kyle;Newell, Margaret
荟萃分析的强度和相关性取决于所用统计方法的有效性。特别重要的是适当评估不同的变异来源。包括荟萃分析在内的许多研究评估了维生素E的有效性和安全性，并得出了不同的结果。阐明和解决这些差异需要解决研究的变异性和模型的不确定性。使用最近的研究分析了维生素E剂量和全因死亡率之间的关系。数据来源通过2004年8月至2005年12月使用MeSH术语维生素e和α-生育酚检索MEDLINE确定的研究进行分析。研究选择纳入标准：男性和非妊娠女性;单独使用维生素E或与其他维生素或矿物质联合使用;将参与者随机分配到维生素E或安慰剂或其他对照组;干预和随访持续时间超过1年; 10例或更多死亡。数据提取由一位作者独立提取的数据由第二位作者审查和确认。当问题出现时，联系原始出版物的通讯作者。数据综合数据收集包括患者和死亡人数，男性百分比，其他维生素或矿物质的使用，平均年龄和随访时间。我们使用贝叶斯分层模型平均结合研究结果。分析使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗计算techniques.Conclusions维生素E摄入量是不太可能影响死亡率，无论剂量。这里介绍的贝叶斯荟萃分析是整合不同变异性来源的理想方法，包括试验效应和模型不确定性。临床试验2009; 6：28-41。http://cti.sagepub.com
Context The strength and relevance of a meta-analysis depends on the validity of the statistical methods used. Of special importance is appropriately assessing different sources of variability. Many studies including meta-analyses have evaluated the efficacy and safety of vitamin E and have yielded varying results. Illuminating and resolving these disparities requires addressing study variability and model uncertainty.Objective To describe Bayesian meta-analysis methods for combining data from clinical trials, using recent studies that analyzed the relationship between vitamin E dose and all-cause mortality.Data Sources Studies used in a previously published meta-analysis appended by studies identified by a search of MEDLINE from August 2004 to December 2005 using the MeSH terms vitamin e and alpha tocopherol.Study Selection Inclusion criteria: men and nonpregnant women; use of vitamin E alone or in combination with other vitamins or minerals; random allocation of participants to either vitamin E or a placebo or other control group; intervention and follow-up duration greater than 1 year; 10 or more deaths.Data Extraction Independent data extraction by one author was reviewed and confirmed by a second author. Corresponding authors of the original publications were contacted when questions arose.Data Synthesis Data collection included the number of patients and deaths, percent men, use of other vitamins or minerals, mean age, and length of follow-up. We combined study results using Bayesian hierarchical model averaging. Analyses used Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques.Conclusions Vitamin E intake is unlikely to affect mortality regardless of dose. The Bayesian meta-analyses presented here are ideal for incorporating disparate sources of variability, including trial effect and model uncertainty. Clinical Trials 2009; 6: 28-41. http://cti.sagepub.com