The implications of climate change for emergency planning
The implications of climate change for emergency planning
复制标题
气候变化对应急计划的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103425
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Arnell N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell N
2022年的热浪、干旱和野火引发了人们的疑问，即英国对极端事件的准备情况如何，以及未来它们可能会变得更加频繁。本文以英国为例，回顾了气候变化对当前应急规划的影响，以及作为对气候变化的适应的应急规划的影响。目前的业务应急规划有七个关键影响：风险评估需要考虑更广泛的事件和不断变化的可能性；需要有长远的眼光；可能需要加强应对能力；某些类型的事件将变得不那么频繁，但不会被消除；培训和演习需要考虑新的事件；公众参与和宣传需要修订以反映事件的严重性增加；需要提高复原力以减少对紧急反应的需要。许多组织将应急计划作为其气候变化适应工具包的一部分。然而，依赖当前或改进的应急规划程序不太可能充分适应不断变化的气候。提高某些部门的复原力将减少对应急规划和反应的需要，但提高各地的复原力是不可行的：因此，应急规划的重点可能会发生变化，以反映社区内和社区之间气候变化的不同影响。要在提高复原力的措施和管理事件的措施之间取得平衡，就需要讨论适当的复原力标准和“紧急情况”的定义。加强应急规划与气候变化适应之间的协调，对于减少当前和未来的风险至关重要。
Heatwaves, droughts and wildfires in 2022 raised questions about how prepared the UK is for extreme events and how they might become more frequent in the future. This paper reviews the implications of climate change for current emergency planning, and for emergency planning as an adaptation to climate change, using the UK as an example. There are seven key implications for current operational emergency planning: risk assessment needs to consider a broader range of events and changing likelihoods, a long-term perspective is necessary, response capabilities may need to be enhanced, some types of events will become less frequent but will not be eliminated, training and exercises need to consider novel events, public engagement and messaging needs to be revised to reflect increased severity of events, and improving resilience is necessary to reduce the need for emergency response. Many organisations include emergency planning as part of their climate change adaptation toolkit. However, relying on current or enhanced emergency planning procedures is unlikely to be a sufficient adaptation to a changing climate. Improved resilience in some sectors will reduce the need for emergency planning and response, but it will not be feasible to improve resilience everywhere: the focus for emergency planning is therefore likely to evolve to reflect diverging impacts of climate change in and between communities. Achieving a balance between measures to increase resilience and measures to manage events requires a discussion on appropriate standards for resilience and definitions of ‘emergency’. Improving the coordination between emergency planning and climate change adaptation is essential to reduce current and future risks.