Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China
Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China
复制标题
中国边缘海热带气旋增强的控制因素.
DOI：
10.3389/feart.2021.795186
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Jing Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li X;Zhan R;Wang Y;Jing Xu
热带气旋在边缘海域的加强，特别是快速加强，往往对沿海地区的生命财产构成巨大威胁，预报误差较大。因此，了解边缘海热带气旋强化的特征和影响边缘海热带气旋强化的关键因素是非常重要的。利用中国上海台风研究所的6小时TC最佳路径资料、ERA中期再分析资料和TRMM卫星降水产品，分析比较了1980-2018年中国边缘海和西北太平洋不同强化层结的气候特征和关键因子。统计结果表明，当热带气旋强度较大、垂直风切变较弱、垂直平移较小、丰度较高、高层辐散较强、相对涡度较低、核心降水率较高时，热带气旋在MSC上增强的可能性较大。用盒差指数法量化了各因素对TC RI的相对贡献。结果表明，无论是MSC还是WNP，初始(相对)强度对热带气旋强度的贡献最大。核内降水速率和垂直于海岸线的平移对MSC热带气旋阻力指数的影响次之，而垂直风切变和热带气旋满度对西北太平洋热带气旋阻力指数的影响较大。这些发现可能有助于理解TCS在MSC上的活动，并为改进MSC中TCS的强度预测提供依据。
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification over marginal seas, especially rapid intensification (RI), often poses great threat to lives and properties in coastal regions and is subject to large forecast errors. It is thus important to understand the characteristics of TC intensification and the involved key factors affecting TC intensification over marginal seas. In this study, the 6-hourly TC best-track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and TRMM satellite rainfall products are used to analyze and compare the climatological characteristics and key factors of different intensification stratifications over the marginal seas of China (MSC) and the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2018. The statistical results show that TC intensification over the MSC is more likely to occur when TCs experience relatively large intensities, weak vertical wind shear, small translation perpendicular to the coastline, relatively high fullness, strong upper-level divergence, low-level relative vorticity, and high inner-core precipitation rate. The box difference index method is used to quantify the relative contributions of these factors to TC RI. Results show that the initial (relative) intensity contributes the most to TC RI over both the MSC and the WNP. The inner-core precipitation rate and translation perpendicular to the coastline are of second importance to TC RI over the MSC, while both vertical wind shear and TC fullness are crucial to TC RI over the WNP. These findings may help understand TC activity over the MSC and provide a basis for improving intensity prediction of TCs in the MSC.
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作者：
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