An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply
An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply
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DOI：
10.1080/0308883042000209562
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发表时间：
2004-07
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
S. M. Tayyebi Jazayeri *;A. Yahyai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. M. Tayyebi Jazayeri *;A. Yahyai
The purpose of this study is first to find out whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, second, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973–2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000–2002 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. The accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and in some cases, such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.
