Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom-Up, Resource-Based Vulnerability Perspective
Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom-Up, Resource-Based Vulnerability Perspective
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gm001086
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发表时间：
2013-04
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
R. Pielke;R. Wilby;D. Niyogi;F. Hossain;Koji Dairuku;J. Adegoke;G. Kallos;T. Seastedt;K. Suding
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Pielke;R. Wilby;D. Niyogi;F. Hossain;Koji Dairuku;J. Adegoke;G. Kallos;T. Seastedt;K. Suding
我们讨论了采用自下而上，基于资源的脆弱性方法来评估气候和其他环境和社会威胁对社会关键资源的影响。这一脆弱性概念要求确定极端事件对当地和区域水、粮食、能源、人类健康和生态系统功能资源的主要威胁，包括气候事件以及其他社会和环境问题。在为每种资源确定这些威胁之后，就可以将相对风险与其他风险进行比较，以便采取最佳的首选缓解/适应战略。与使用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）采用的结果脆弱性方法相比，这是一种更具包容性的评估风险（包括来自气候变异性和气候变化的风险）的方法。采用自下而上、基于资源的框架进行的背景脆弱性评估是一种更具包容性的方法，可供决策者采用有效的缓解和适应方法，以应对未来几十年内将发生的各种复杂的社会和环境极端事件，因为所评估的威胁范围超出了气专委评估中所强调的仅侧重于二氧化碳和少数其他温室气体的范围。
We discuss the adoption of a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability approach in evaluating the effect of climate and other environmental and societal threats to societally critical resources. This vulnerability concept requires the determination of the major threats to local and regional water, food, energy, human health, and ecosystem function resources from extreme events including those from climate but also from other social and environmental issues. After these threats are identified for each resource, then the relative risks can be compared with other risks in order to adopt optimal preferred mitigation/adaptation strategies. This is a more inclusive way of assessing risks, including from climate variability and climate change, than using the outcome vulnerability approach adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A contextual vulnerability assessment using the bottom-up, resource-based framework is a more inclusive approach for policy makers to adopt effective mitigation and adaptation methodologies to deal with the complexity of the spectrum of social and environmental extreme events that will occurinthecomingdecadesastherangeofthreatsareassessed,beyondjustthefocus on CO2 and a few other greenhouse gases as emphasized in the IPCC assessments.