Validation of the prediction model for success of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Japanese women.
Validation of the prediction model for success of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Japanese women.
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DOI：
10.7150/ijms.4682
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Tamakoshi K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yokoi A;Ishikawa K;Miyazaki K;Yoshida K;Furuhashi M;Tamakoshi K
目的：使用日本队列验证先前开发的剖腹产后阴道分娩 (VBAC) 预测模型。方法：我们对 1985 年 4 月至 2010 年 3 月期间尝试分娩的所有顶位、单胎妊娠和先前进行过低位横向剖腹产的足月孕妇进行了一项队列研究。预测成功 VBAC 所需的变量包括产妇年龄、孕前体重指数、种族、既往阴道分娩、既往 VBAC 以及既往剖宫产指征。它们是从医疗记录中提取出来的，并放入公式中计算单个女性的预测 VBAC 成功率。然后将预测率划分为十分位数并与实际 VBAC 率进行比较。通过受试者工作特征评估模型的预测能力，并确定曲线下面积 (AUC)。结果：725 名符合纳入标准的女性拥有完整的数据，其中 664 名（91.6%）患有 VBAC。根据回归方程计算，成功试产者的 VBAC 预测概率（中位数 80.1%，四分位数范围 71.5-88.7）显着高于未试产者（中位数 69.4%，四分位数范围 59.9-78.9，P<0.001）。预测模型的 AUC 为 0.80，与最初描述的模型相当。当预测率每十分之一超过70%时，实际成功率超过90%。结论：先前发表的美国开发的 VBAC 预测模型也适用于日本女性。
Aim: To validate a previously developed prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) using a Japanese cohort. Methods: We performed a cohort study of all term pregnant women with a vertex position, singleton gestation, and one prior low transverse cesarean delivery attempting a trial of labor between April 1985 and March 2010. Variables necessary for the prediction of successful VBAC were maternal age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, ethnicity, prior vaginal delivery, prior VBAC, and indication for prior cesarean delivery. They were extracted from medical records and put into the formula that calculates an individual woman's predicted VBAC success rate. The predicted rates were then partitioned into deciles and compared with the actual VBAC rates. The predictive ability of the model was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined. Results: Seven hundred and twenty-five women who met the inclusion criteria had complete data available, of which 664 (91.6%) had VBAC. The predicted probability of VBAC, as calculated by the regression equation, was significantly higher in those who had a successful trial of labor (median 80.1%, interquartile range 71.5-88.7) than those who did not (median 69.4%, interquartile range 59.9-78.9, P<0.001). The predictive model had AUC of 0.80, which was comparative to the originally described one. When the predicted rates were each deciles of over 70%, the actual success rates were more than 90%. Conclusion: The previously published prediction model for VBAC developed in the USA is also available to Japanese women.
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影响因子：
7.2
作者：
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通讯作者：
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作者：
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Mamun AA;Callaway LK;O'Callaghan MJ;Williams GM;Najman JM;Alati R;Clavarino A;Lawlor DA
通讯作者：
Lawlor DA
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Clark, Erin A. S.;Silver, Robert M.
通讯作者：
Silver, Robert M.