Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board , Washington , D . C . The Analytics of SVARs : A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers
Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board , Washington , D . C . The Analytics of SVARs : A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
Christophe Kamps
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作者：
Dario Caldara;Christophe Kamps
规模政策刺激产出吗？SVAR已被用来解决这个问题，但没有程式化的事实已经出现。我们推导出规模变量的产出弹性和规模乘数之间的解析关系。我们发现，标准的识别方案意味着不同的弹性先验，产生一个大的分散乘数估计。然后，我们使用额外的模型信息来缩小经验上合理的弹性集，从而对乘数进行更清晰的推断。我们对美国1947-2006年的研究结果表明，在所有时间段，税收乘数大于支出乘数的概率都低于0.5。JEL分类：E62; C52。
Does scal policy stimulate output? SVARs have been used to address this question but no stylized facts have emerged. We derive analytical relationships between the output elasticities of scal variables and scal multipliers. We show that standard identi cation schemes imply different priors on elasticities, generating a large dispersion in multiplier estimates. We then use extra-model information to narrow the set of empirically plausible elasticities, allowing for sharper inference on multipliers. Our results for the U.S. for the period 1947-2006 suggest that the probability of the tax multiplier being larger than the spending multiplier is below 0.5 at all horizons. JEL Classi cation: E62; C52.