FAR BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN URBAN CHINA.
FAR BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN URBAN CHINA.
复制标题
远低于中国城市的更替生育率。
DOI：
10.1017/s0021932017000347
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Zhao Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao Z
中国城市人口的生育率在过去60年中迅速下降。这一巨大变化将对中国的人口、社会和经济未来产生重大影响。然而，中国城市生育率下降的模式和特点尚未得到系统的研究。本研究分析了20世纪50年代以来中国城市生育率的变化趋势和年龄结构，并将生育行为的主要特征归纳为四个“低”：生育率极“低”;二胎及以上胎次生育率“低”;平均出生年龄“低”;无子女率“低”。该论文认为，在中国目前近8亿城市人口中发现的高度同质化的生殖行为，部分是由中国政府对计划生育的前所未有的干预所形成的。特别是上世纪70年代的“晚、长、少”运动和“独生子女”政策，给中国的生育规范和生育模式留下了清晰的印记。然而，政府主导的计划生育方案并不是生育率下降的唯一驱动力。广泛的社会、经济、政治和文化变化也影响了家庭组成、生殖行为和生育模式的转变，这在过去二十年中变得日益突出。
China’s urban population has experienced rapid fertility decline over the past six decades. This drastic change will have a significant impact on China’s demographic, social and economic future. However, the patterns and characteristics of urban China’s fertility decline have not been systematically examined. This study analyses the trends and age patterns of fertility in urban China since the 1950s, and summarizes the major characteristics of reproductive behaviours into four ‘lows’: extremely ‘low’ level of fertility; ‘low’ proportion of two and higher parity births; ‘low’ mean age at birth; and ‘low’ level of childlessness. The paper argues that the highly homogenous reproductive behaviours found in China’s now near 800 million urban population have been in part shaped by the country’s unprecedented government intervention in family planning. The ‘later, longer, fewer’ campaign in the 1970s and the ‘one-child’ policy, in particular, have left clear imprints on China’s reproductive norms and fertility patterns. The government-led family planning programme, however, has not been the only driving force of fertility decline. A wide range of social, economic, political and cultural changes have also affected the transition in family formation, reproductive behaviour and fertility patterns, and this has become increasingly prominent in the past two decades.