The environmental, archaeological and historical evidence for regional climatic changes and their societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity
The environmental, archaeological and historical evidence for regional climatic changes and their societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity
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古代晚期东地中海区域气候变化及其社会影响的环境、考古和历史证据
DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.07.022
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Izdebski A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Izdebski A
本文研究了公元200-800年东地中海气候变化的证据，并提出了关于气候波动在古代末期该地区社会发展中作用的假设。本文的地理重点包括安纳托利亚和黎凡特，这两个东罗马帝国的主要地区有丰富的环境，历史和考古资料。本文首先回顾了目前对东地中海晚古时期经济、定居和植被历史的研究，为研究潜在的气候影响提供了必要的框架。文章的核心是对古气候证据的分析，分为两组。第一个包括直接证据，即古气候代理和极端天气事件的文字记录，而第二个包括气候的间接信息，特别是多代理研究，包括花粉分析，考古证据和生存危机的历史证据。我们的结论是，在我们的研究期间，发生了三个时期的气候条件有很大的不同。在公元350-470年的罗马干旱之后，气候条件发生了戏剧性的变化，变得更加湿润。这些反过来又变成了增加干燥后，公元730年在安纳托利亚和公元670年在黎凡特。考古证据和一些气候记录的年代测定缺乏时间上的精确性，使得目前无法对这些气候波动的社会反应做出结论性的观察。尽管如此，罗马晚期持续的干旱（在某些地区甚至是严重的干旱）并没有在安纳托利亚或黎凡特造成任何重大的社会动荡或经济衰退，尽管它似乎促成了城市用水模式的变化。相比之下，公元470年之后水分供应的增加似乎确实促进了农村定居点和农业向环境边缘地带的扩展，包括内盖夫等半干旱地区。这样，气候可能有助于地中海盆地东部罗马帝国晚期的总体经济繁荣。罗马帝国晚期的世界体系最终在公元前7世纪中期结束。至少在安纳托利亚，这与气候条件的任何变化都没有直接联系。中世纪早期的干旱可能是伊斯兰征服后黎凡特边缘土地上定居点逐渐长期下降的主要因素之一。
This paper examines the evidence for climatic changes in the Eastern Mediterranean for the period 200–800 AD and offers hypotheses on the role of climatic fluctuations in the societal developments that occurred in this region at the end of Antiquity. The geographical focus of the paper includes Anatolia and the Levant, two major regions of the Eastern Roman Empire that are rich in environmental, historical and archaeological data. The paper starts with the review of current research on the economic, settlement and vegetation history of the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity, which provides the necessary framework for the study of potential climate impacts. The core of the article is devoted to the analysis of the palaeoclimatic evidence, which is divided in two groups. The first one encompasses the direct evidence, that is palaeoclimate proxies and the textual record of extreme weather events, while the second includes indirect information on climate, in particular multi-proxy studies that include pollen analysis, archaeological evidence, and the historical evidence of subsistence crises. We conclude that during our study period there occurred three periods of substantially different climatic conditions. A late Roman drought ∼350–470 AD was followed by a dramatic shift to much wetter climatic conditions. These in turn changed into increasing dryness after ∼730 AD in Anatolia and ∼670 AD in the Levant. The lack of chronological precision in the dating of the archaeological evidence and of some climatic records makes it impossible at present to make conclusive observations regarding the societal responses to these climatic fluctuations. Nonetheless in all probability, the extended and – in some areas - severe late Roman drought did not cause any major social upheaval or economic decline in Anatolia or the Levant, although it appears to have contributed to a change in patterns of water use in the cities. In contrast, the increased availability of moisture after ∼470 AD does appear to have contributed to the expansion of rural settlement and agriculture into environmentally marginal terrain, including semi-arid areas such as the Negev. In this way climate probably contributed to the general economic prosperity of the late Roman Empire in the east of the Mediterranean basin. The end of this late Roman world system came about finally in mid-7th c. and, at least in Anatolia, is not directly associated with any shift in climatic conditions. Aridity during early Medieval times may be one of the main factors behind the gradual long-term decline of settlement on the marginal lands in the Levant following Islamic conquest.
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