A Model for U.S. Tornado Casualties Involving Interaction between Damage Path Estimates of Population Density and Energy Dissipation
A Model for U.S. Tornado Casualties Involving Interaction between Damage Path Estimates of Population Density and Energy Dissipation
复制标题
美国龙卷风伤亡模型涉及人口密度和能量耗散的损害路径估计之间的相互作用
DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-18-0106.1
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
William D. Berry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Elsner;T. Fricker;William D. Berry
最近的一项研究表明，龙卷风能量作为龙卷风死亡和受伤(伤亡)模型中的一个因素具有重要意义。该模型是在一致威胁假设下的可加性模型。在这里，我们测试两个明确的假设，旨在检验这个相加假设。第一种假设是能量耗散对人口密度的影响，第二种假设是人口对能量的影响。这两个假设都使用包含人口密度和能量消耗乘积的回归模型进行了检验。结果表明，人员伤亡对能量耗散的弹性随着人口密度的增加而增大。也就是说，随着能量耗散的增加，伤亡增加的百分比随着人口密度的增加而增加。同样，人员伤亡对人口密度的弹性随能量耗散而增加。也就是说，随着人口密度的增加，伤亡增加的百分比随着能量的消散而增加。允许能源和人口弹性是有条件的，而不是恒定的，这为龙卷风伤亡如何受到这两个重要因素的影响提供了更完整的描述。
A recent study showed the importance of tornado energy as a factor in a model for tornado deaths and injuries (casualties). The model was additive under the assumption of uniform threat. Here, we test two explicit hypotheses designed to examine this additive assumption. The first hypothesis concerns energy dissipation’s effect conditional on population density and the second concerns population’s effect conditional on energy. Both hypotheses are tested using a regression model that contains the product of population density and energy dissipation. Results show that the elasticity of casualties with respect to energy dissipation increases with population density. That is, the percentage increase in casualties with increasing energy dissipation increases with population density. Similarly, the elasticity of casualties with respect to population density increases with energy dissipation. That is, the percentage increase in casualties with increasing population density increases with energy dissipation. Allowing energy and population elasticities to be conditional rather than constant provides a more complete description of how tornado casualties are influenced by these two important factors.