Assessing the environmental requirements of invaders using ensembles of distribution models
Assessing the environmental requirements of invaders using ensembles of distribution models
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00727.x
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Anastacio, Pedro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Capinha, Cesar;Anastacio, Pedro
目的了解决定入侵种群建立的环境因素是生物入侵研究中的一个关键问题。通过考虑预测的不确定性，基于生态位的模型集合可以提供有用的信息。因此，我们探索了使用共识技术来生成有利于建立四个有问题的入侵十足动物的环境条件的定量描述：Cherax destructor，Eriocheir sinensis，Pacifastacus leniusculus和Procambarus clarki.LocationIberian PenIsland。根据这些数据，我们使用回归、分类和机器学习方法等八个相关模型对四个十足类物种的潜在分布进行了建模。对各环境变量在单一模型中的相对影响进行平均，以达到各变量的一致贡献。生态需要量通过共识适宜性曲线进行研究，这是一种空间分析程序，显示了共识适宜性随环境变量梯度的变化。尽管如此，预测之间的变异性很大。同样，每个变量在不同模型中的影响也是不均匀的。共识分析表明，与温度相关的变量对所有入侵者都有很大的影响。一致的适宜性曲线表明，在较冷的地区，破坏藻类和克氏原甲藻的适宜性降低，而在较温暖的地区，百合对虾的适宜性大大降低。与海洋的距离对中华绒毛虫模型的适宜性有很大的影响，适宜性随距离的增加呈指数递减。在这方面，我们表明，可以使用各种模型和协商一致的方法来确定这种关系，同时还可以评估所取得的知识的不确定性。
AimUnderstanding the environmental factors determining the establishment of invasive populations is a crucial issue in the study of biological invasions. By taking into account the uncertainty of predictions, ensembles of niche-based models can provide useful information. Therefore, we explored the use of consensus techniques to generate a quantitative description of the environmental conditions favouring the establishment of four problematic invasive decapods: Cherax destructor, Eriocheir sinensis, Pacifastacus leniusculus and Procambarus clarkii.LocationIberian Peninsula.MethodsWe collected both native and invasive distribution records from multiple sources. From these data, we modelled the potential distribution of the four decapod species using eight correlative models comprising regression, classification and machine learning methods. The relative influence of the environmental variables in single models was averaged to achieve a consensus contribution of the variables. Ecological requirements were investigated by means of consensus suitability curves, a spatial analysis procedure that shows the variation of consensus suitability along the gradients of environmental variables.ResultsThe predictive accuracy of single models ranged from fair to very good. Still, the variability between predictions was high. Similarly, the influence of each variable in different models was also uneven. Consensus analysis identified the variables related to temperature as highly influential for all invaders. Consensus suitability curves show that C. destructor and Procambarus clarkii have reduced suitability in colder areas whereas the suitability for P. leniusculus is greatly reduced in warmer areas. The distance to the ocean was highly influential in E. sinensis models, with suitability showing an exponential decay as distance increased.Main conclusionsWe show that the information about the species-environment relationships obtained from niche-based models is highly dependent on the characteristics of the models used. In this context, we demonstrate that ensembles of models and consensus approaches can be used to identify such relationships while also allowing the assessment of the uncertainty of the achieved knowledge.