Temporal matching of occurrence localities and forest cover data helps improve range estimates and predict climate change vulnerabilities
Temporal matching of occurrence localities and forest cover data helps improve range estimates and predict climate change vulnerabilities
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01569
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发表时间：
2021-06-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Anderson, Robert P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gavrutenko, Maria;Gerstner, Beth E.;Anderson, Robert P.
需要改进对物种分布范围的量化，以便为保护规划提供更准确的灭绝风险估计。高地热带生物多样性可能特别容易受到土地覆盖和气候的人为变化的影响，自然保护联盟的评估对地理范围的大小估计过高。在这里，我们展示了一种新的和实用的方法来量化推断的范围减少最近的物种发生地点和植被数据的时间匹配的基础上。作为一个例子有关的山地森林相关的物种有限的分布数据，我们使用Gymnuromys roberti，马达加斯加特有的啮齿动物与最不关心的保护状态。我们估计气候适宜性和气候变化的脆弱性，使用物种分布模型（SDM）。然后，我们确定了砍伐森林的容忍阈值的物种的时间匹配最近发生的地方与百分比的森林覆盖率值从MODIS森林覆盖层。最后，我们将这些阈值应用于基于SDM的距离估计的后处理中。这些估计表明，与自然保护联盟的分布图相比，缺乏足够的森林覆盖大大减少了该物种目前的估计分布范围。到2050年的预测表明，目前适宜的生境沿着将丧失四分之三以上的气候适宜性，而且更加支离破碎，这突出表明需要将气候变化脆弱性评估作为养护规划的一个组成部分。更广泛地应用可持续发展机制可在养护规划的各个阶段为从业人员提供帮助，强调需要改进方法复杂的可持续发展机制办法的可及性。(c)2021年，任作家。出版社：Elsevier B.V. CC_BY_NC_ND_4.0
Improved quantification of species' ranges is needed to provide more accurate estimates of extinction risks for conservation planning. Highland tropical biodiversity may be particularly vulnerable to the anthropogenic changes in land cover and climate and is subject to overestimation of geographic range size in IUCN assessments. Here, we demonstrate a novel and practical approach for quantifying inferred range reductions based upon temporal matching of recent species occurrence localities and vegetation data. As an illustration pertinent to montane forest-associated species with limited distribution data, we use Gymnuromys roberti, an endemic Malagasy rodent with a Least Concern conservation status. We estimated climatic suitability and climate change vulnerability using species distribution modeling (SDM). We then determined deforestation tolerance thresholds for the species by temporally matching recent occurrence localities with percent forest cover values from MODIS forest cover layers. Finally, we applied these thresholds in postprocessing SDM-based range estimates. These estimates demonstrate that the lack of sufficient forest cover substantially reduces the species' current estimated range compared with the IUCN range map. Projections to 2050 suggest that there will be a loss of climatic suitability over three quarters of the currently suitable habitat along with increased fragmentation, highlighting the need to include climate change vulnerability assessments as an integral part of conservation planning. Broader application of SDMs could assist practitioners at various stages of conservation planning, stressing the need for improved accessibility of methodologically complex SDM approaches. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. CC_BY_NC_ND_4.0