AGGREGATION AND BEYOND - SOME BASIC ISSUES ON THE PREDICTION OF BEHAVIOR
AGGREGATION AND BEYOND - SOME BASIC ISSUES ON THE PREDICTION OF BEHAVIOR
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-6494.1983.tb00338.x
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发表时间：
1983-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
EPSTEIN, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
EPSTEIN, S
由于未能认识到聚合在提高可靠性和有效性以及建立研究结果的概括范围方面所起的作用，导致人们对行为在不同时间和不同情况下的稳定性产生误解，并导致实验结果往往既不可概括也不可复制。适当的聚合可以减少与个体刺激、情境、场合、判断、行为项目和主体的非代表性相关的误差方差。不适当的汇总不仅会造成信息的损失，而且会降低可靠性和有效性。不同的方法来预测与单一项目的行为进行了讨论，并得出结论，单一项目往往是太不可靠，范围太窄，以衡量广泛的性格，如特质。一个主要的重点是，行为往往是高度特定的情境，除非这是考虑到程序，如汇总的情况和/或场合，或通过调查的事件是如此高度自我涉及实验效果主导情境独特的效果，结果往往是不可复制或不可推广的，无论其统计学意义的水平。
Failure to appreciate the role that aggregation plays in increasing reliability and validity and in establishing the range of generalization of findings has resulted in misunderstandings about the stability of behavior across time and situations, and in the conduct of experiments that produce results that tend to be neither generalizable nor replicable. Appropriate aggregation can reduce error variance associated with the unrepresentativeness of individual stimuli, situations, occasions, judges, items of behavior, and subjects. Inappropriate aggregation can result not only in a loss of information but also in a reduction in reliability as well as validity. Different approaches to prediction with single items of behavior are discussed, and it is concluded that single items tend to be too unreliable and too narrow in scope to measure broad dispositions such as traits. A major emphasis is that behavior is often so highly situationally specific that unless this is taken into account by procedures such as aggregation over situations and/or occasions, or by the investigation of events that are so highly ego‐involving that experimental effects dominate situation‐ally unique effects, results will tend to be unreplicable or ungeneralizable, no matter what their level of statistical significance.