A model intercomparison study of climate change‐signals in extratropical circulation

A model intercomparison study of climate change‐signals in extratropical circulation
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温带环流气候变化信号的模式比对研究

DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
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通讯作者：
H. Paeth
H. Paeth
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Rauthe;A. Hense;H. Paeth

文献摘要

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自1970年以来，各种温带环流模态的观测时间序列显示出显著的趋势。许多研究表明，这些趋势可能与温室气体（GHG）浓度增加导致的全球变暖有关。耦合气候模式情景试验可能提供这种关系的线索。为了量化不同气候模式共有的信号并确定不确定性的程度，本文提出了一项大型模式比较研究，将国际建模界最先进的模式与温室气体和温室气体+硫酸盐气溶胶（SUL）强迫结合起来。温带环流候选者是北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）、阿留申低压（AL）和南极涛动（AAO）。
Since 1970, the observed time series of various extratropical circulation modes have revealed remarkable trends. In many studies it has been suggested that these trends may be related to global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Coupled climate model scenario experiments may give a hint of such a relationship. Here, a large model intercomparison study is presented, incorporating most state‐of‐the‐art models of the international modeller community with GHG and GHG plus sulphate aerosol (SUL) forcing, in order to quantify the signals common to different climate models and to determine the degree of uncertainty. The extratropical circulation candidates are the Arctic oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the Aleutian low (AL) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO).