A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900–2006
A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900–2006
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DOI：
10.1002/2013jd020542
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发表时间：
2014-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jinfeng Wang;Chengdong Xu;Maogui Hu;Qinxiang Li;Zhongwei Yan;P. Zhao;P. Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jinfeng Wang;Chengdong Xu;Maogui Hu;Qinxiang Li;Zhongwei Yan;P. Zhao;P. Jones
虽然上个世纪的全球变暖已经得到了很好的认识，但由于早期的观测有限，过去100年来中国等地区的气候变暖幅度仍然存在一些不确定性。中国世纪的几个温度异常系列是由不同的小组独立发展起来的。不确定性主要来自1950年之前的稀疏观测，其中统计对小样本和潜在偏差样本敏感。在这项研究中，BSHADE-MSN（有偏的哨兵医院地区疾病估计和分层非均匀表面的平均值），两个新的不同的统计方法，适用于不同的样本情况下的空间非均匀表面的组合，估计中国的年平均温度异常。该方法考虑了地理空间自相关性和目标区域非均匀性的先验知识，对有偏样本进行修正，最大化目标函数，得到区域平均量的最佳线性无偏估计（BLUE）。在1900-1999年期间，BSHADE-MSN估计的总体趋势为0.80°C，95%置信区间为0.41°C至1.18°C。这明显低于气候距平法（CAM）和块克立格法计算的结果。新的中国气温距平序列显示出1950年以前的气候条件比现有的研究略暖。在1950年以后，当全国有足够的台站来估计温度距平序列时，到目前为止所用的所有方法都能很好地吻合。交叉验证表明，新的区域平均温度距平序列具有较小的估计误差方差和更高的精度比基于其他方法在这项研究中评估。
While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100 years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20th century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE‐MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900–1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE‐MSN is 0.80°C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41°C and 1.18°C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.