Environmental niche modelling fails to predict Last Glacial Maximum refugia: niche shifts, microrefugia or incorrect palaeoclimate estimates?
Environmental niche modelling fails to predict Last Glacial Maximum refugia: niche shifts, microrefugia or incorrect palaeoclimate estimates?
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.12239
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发表时间：
2014-11
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
J. Worth;G. Williamson;S. Sakaguchi;P. Nevill;G. Jordan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Worth;G. Williamson;S. Sakaguchi;P. Nevill;G. Jordan
目的：许多对未来气候变化响应的预测利用生态位模型（ENM）。我们通过测试这些模型是否可以预测过去的物种分布来评估这些模型在与当前环境不同的条件下预测物种分布的能力。位置：南纬43°至31°，澳大利亚东南部（包括塔斯马尼亚）。研究方法：研究了温带澳大利亚中部森林的3种优势树种：厚籽香桉（Atherosperma moschatum）、王桉（Eucalyptus regnans）和杉木（Nothofagus cunninghamii）。系统地理学证据表明，这些物种都在多个避难所中幸存下来。我们模拟了每个物种的当前分布，并将这些模型预测到六个古气候情景下的LGM气候。在每种情况下，使用三个不同的阈值推断物种存在/不存在的支持，以地理为基础的冰川避难所估计。结果如下：LGM模型的情况下，允许一个现实的降雨量水平，未能预测生存的研究物种在避难所确定的遗传证据，除了那些在塔斯马尼亚州西部的过湿。主要结论：正确的预测几乎所有的现代发生的物种表明，这种失败的ENMs预测避难生存不是方法。相反，我们的结论是，现有的实现生态位的这些物种可能已经改变，因为末次冰期。这种生态位的变化可能涉及到末次盛冰期气候的非相似性和基本生态位的某些重大改变（至少对E。regnans）。我们的研究结果强调，未来气候变化对生物多样性的影响的预测将受益于ENMs在预测种群/物种灭绝的局限性的认识。需要更多地了解生态位如何随着时间的推移而变化，以及这与物种特征的关系，以提高生态环境监测的可靠性。植物生态位的变化也可能影响基于化石花粉的古气候估计。
Aim: Many predictions of responses to future climate change utilize ecological niche models (ENMs). We assess the capacity of these models to predict species distributions under conditions that differ from the current environment by testing whether they can predict past distributions of species. Location: From 43° S to 31° S in south-eastern Australia (including Tasmania). Methods: We studied three dominant tree species of temperate Australian mesic forests, Atherosperma moschatum, Eucalyptus regnans and Nothofagus cunninghamii . Phylogeographic evidence indicates that these species each survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia. We modelled the current distribution of each species and projected those models onto LGM climates under six palaeoclimatic scenarios. The support for phylogeographic-based glacial refugia was estimated under each scenario using three different thresholds for inferring species presence/absence. Results: The LGM models under scenarios that allowed for a realistic level of rainfall failed to predict survival of the study species in refugia identified from genetic evidence, apart from those in perhumid western Tasmania. Main conclusions: Correct prediction of nearly all modern occurrences of the species suggests that this failure of ENMs to predict refugial survival was not methodological. Rather we conclude that the existing realized niches of these species may have changed since the LGM. Such niche changes may have involved the occurrence of non-analogue climates in the LGM and some significant alteration of fundamental niche (for at least E. regnans ). Our results emphasize that predictions of future impacts of climate change on biodiversity will benefit from awareness of the limitations of ENMs in predicting the extinction of populations/species. Greater knowledge of how niches have changed through time and how this relates to the characteristics of species is needed to improve the reliability of ENMs. Niche changes in plants may also affect palaeoclimatic estimates based on fossil pollen.