The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: Lessons from Europe
The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: Lessons from Europe
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SPR 系统模型作为快速综合风险评估的概念基础：欧洲的经验教训
DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.021
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
J. Vanderlinden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Narayan;R. Nicholls;D. Clarke;S. Hanson;D. Reeve;J. Horrillo;G. Cozannet;F. Hissel;B. Kowalska;Rafal Parda;P. Willems;N. Ohle;B. Zanuttigh;I. Losada;J. Ge;E. Trifonova;E. Penning‐Rowsell;J. Vanderlinden
沿海洪泛平原是复杂的区域，形成了人类、物理和自然系统之间的界面。本文描述了利用最近开发的SPR系统模型进行定量综合洪泛区风险评估的概念基础的发展、应用和评价。SPR系统模型是一个概念模型，它结合了已建立的源-途径-受体（SPR）方法和系统图的概念。与传统方法相比，系统模型根据组成元素和可能的元素联系提供了洪泛平原的空间明确的准二维描述。准二维SPR，今后将在本文中提及，不是这项工作的最终产品，而是一个重要的中间阶段，作为更广泛的欧洲洪水风险项目THESEUS （www.theseusproject.eu）的一部分。目前正在进行进一步的研究，以提供准2d SPR的全面量化，并进一步改进，以便可以根据这些评估结果轻松快速地进行水力评估。本文的第一部分综合了目前对沿海洪泛区的概念处理，并确定了在将沿海洪泛区描述为复杂系统方面需要改进的领域。综合表明，“典型”洪水风险研究的概念基础往往比它所提供的定量模型对洪泛区的描述更不全面和综合。从这一综合来看，准二维SPR被确定为综合风险评估的更稳健和信息丰富的概念基础。作为THESEUS项目的一部分，准二维SPR已应用于七个欧洲沿海洪泛平原。论文第二部分详细讨论了准二维SPR在河口、海岸半岛和开放海岸/河口混合河漫滩系统中的应用。准二维SPR提供了一种一致的方法来实现对每个海岸洪泛区的综合洪泛区描述。这些是通过强有力的、参与性的模式建立工作获得的，这有助于形成对该系统的共同理解。构建的模型是跨多个学科构建和集成现有知识的强大工具。准二维SPR的应用提供了对复杂海岸洪泛平原特征的关键见解，这些见解将为量化过程提供信息。最后，简要描述了拟二维SPR的定量扩展。
Coastal floodplains are complex regions that form the interface between human, physical and natural systems. This paper describes the development, application and evaluation of a conceptual foundation for quantitative integrated floodplain risk assessments using the recently-developed SPR systems model. The SPR systems model is a conceptual model that combines the well-established Source–Pathway–Receptor (SPR) approach with the concept of system diagrams. In comparison to the conventional approach, the systems model provides spatially explicit quasi-2D descriptions of the floodplain in terms of constituent elements and possible element linkages. The quasi-2D SPR, as it will henceforth be referred to in this paper, is not the final product of this work, but is an important intermediate stage which has been pursued as part of a wider European flood risk project THESEUS (www.theseusproject.eu). Further research is currently on-going to provide full quantification of the quasi-2D SPR, and to add further refinements such that hydraulic assessments could follow on easily and rapidly from the results of these appraisals.The first part of the paper synthesises current conceptual treatment of coastal floodplains and identifies areas for improvement in describing coastal floodplains as complex systems. The synthesis demonstrates that the conceptual foundation of a ‘typical’ flood risk study often achieves a less comprehensive and integrated description of the floodplain than the quantitative models which it informs. From this synthesis, the quasi-2D SPR is identified as a more robust and informative conceptual foundation for an integrated risk assessment. The quasi-2D SPR has been applied to seven European coastal floodplains as part of the THESEUS project. The second part of the paper discusses in detail the application of the quasi-2D SPR to three contrasting floodplain systems — an estuary, a coastal peninsula and a mixed open coast/estuary site. The quasi-2D SPR provides a consistent approach for achieving comprehensive floodplain descriptions that are individual to each coastal floodplain. These are obtained through a robust, participatory model-building exercise, that facilitates developing a shared understanding of the system. The constructed model is a powerful tool for structuring and integrating existing knowledge across multiple disciplines. Applications of the quasi-2D SPR provide key insights into the characteristics of complex coastal floodplains — insights that will inform the quantification process. Finally, the paper briefly describes the on-going quantitative extension to the quasi-2D SPR.