Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations
Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations
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DOI：
10.1111/ecog.04408
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发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
F. L. La Sorte;D. Fink;A. Johnston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. L. La Sorte;D. Fink;A. Johnston
为了更好地理解全球气候变化对表现出地理和季节性动态生活史策略的物种的生态影响，我们需要确定新的气候预计在哪里以及何时首次出现。在这里，我们使用一种多变量方法来估计新气候的出现时间(TOE)，该方法基于三个气候变量(降水、最低和最高温度)，在高排放情景下(RCP8.5)，在西半球280年(2021-2300)的时间分辨率上。我们利用eBird公民科学数据库中的观察结果，对77种雀形目鸟类的相对丰度进行了交叉估计，这些鸟类在北美温带繁殖地和南热带和亚热带越冬地之间迁徙。在非繁殖季节，在热带过冬的候鸟预计在本世纪下半叶会遇到新奇的气候。在亚热带过冬的移民预计在下个世纪上半叶会遇到新奇的气候。在繁殖季节开始时，在温带繁殖地的候鸟预计在下个世纪上半叶会遇到新奇的气候。在繁殖季节结束时，预计候鸟将在本世纪下半叶遇到新奇的气候。因此，在繁殖季节的后半段，新奇的气候会在40-50年前首次出现。这些结果强调了新气候形成的巨大季节和空间差异，以及候鸟在本世纪可能遇到的显著挑战，特别是在它们的热带越冬地和从繁殖向迁徙的过渡期间。在评估气候变化的生态影响时，我们的研究结果强调了应用完整的年度循环视角的价值，使用标准化的衡量标准，促进跨空间和跨时间的比较。
To better understand the ecological implications of global climate change for species that display geographically and seasonally dynamic life‐history strategies, we need to determine where and when novel climates are projected to first emerge. Here, we use a multivariate approach to estimate time of emergence (ToE) of novel climates based on three climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) at a weekly temporal resolution within the Western Hemisphere over a 280‐yr period (2021–2300) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). We intersect ToE estimates with weekly estimates of relative abundance for 77 passerine bird species that migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and southern tropical and subtropical wintering grounds using observations from the eBird citizen‐science database. During the non‐breeding season, migrants that winter within the tropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Migrants that winter in the subtropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the beginning of the breeding season, migrants on their temperate breeding grounds are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the end of the breeding season, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Thus, novel climates will first emerge ca 40–50 yr earlier during the second half of the breeding season. These results emphasize the large seasonal and spatial variation in the formation of novel climates, and the pronounced challenges migratory birds are likely to encounter during this century, especially on their tropical wintering grounds and during the transition from breeding to migration. When assessing the ecological implications of climate change, our findings emphasize the value of applying a full annual cycle perspective using standardized metrics that promote comparisons across space and time.