Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?
Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?
复制标题
气候智能型农业能否扭转中国近期稻米产量增长放缓的局面？
DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.014
复制
发表时间：
2014-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
熊伟
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
熊伟
全世界的证据表明，许多主要粮食作物的产量增长率下降，但原因尚不清楚。本文通过使用两个时间和区域校准的作物模型EPIC和DSSAT，定量地论证了不同驱动因子（气候变化、化肥使用、水稻种植面积变化、作物品种和管理变化）在解释中国水稻产量发展中的作用和意义。中国的水稻产量从1981年的4324公斤公顷-1增加到2010年的6553公斤公顷-1，在此期间，增长速度明显放缓。两种作物模型都很好地捕捉到了观察到的平坦生长趋势。EPIC模拟到2010年，产量增加了2024 kg ha− 1，农业集约化加上化肥的增加施用和作物品种的改良以及管理的改善占主导地位，分别贡献了64%和37%，而气候变化（2%）和种植面积（-3%）的贡献很小。最近水稻产量增长速度放缓，在很大程度上被解释为肥料的相对贡献减少，而改良品种和管理的相对效益没有弥补这一点。我们还发现，对气候变化的适应可能有助于通过促进水稻种植区的搬迁和采用改良的水稻品种来提高水稻产量。作物模型模拟表明，通过引进水稻品种和针对气候优化的管理，可以实现额外的产量增加，这为扭转水稻产量增长放缓的趋势提出了可行的选择。更聪明地利用气候效益的农业是提高中国未来粮食供应的解决方案之一。
Worldwide evidence indicates a reduction in the rate of yield growth for many key food crops, but reasons for this remain unclear. Here, we quantitatively demonstrate the role and significance of different drivers (climate change, fertilizer use, change in rice cultivation area, and changes in crop varieties and management) in explaining rice yield development in China, through the use of two temporally and regionally calibrated crop models – EPIC and DSSAT. China’s rice yield has increased from 4324 kg ha−1in 1981 to 6553 kg ha−1in 2010, with an evidently slowing growth rate over this time period. The observed flattening growth trend is well captured by both crop models. EPIC simulated a yield increase of 2024 kg ha−1up to 2010, with agricultural intensification together with increased application of chemical fertilizer and improved crop varieties and management dominating the growth, contributing 64% and 37% respectively, while changes in climate (2%) and cultivation area (−3%) contributed only minimally. The recent slowing rate of rice yield growth is largely interpreted as a decreasing relative contribution of fertilizer, that is not being compensated by relative benefits from improved varieties and management. We also find that adaptation to climate change may have contributed to the observed increase of rice yield by facilitating the relocation of rice growing areas and the adoption of improved rice cultivars. Crop model simulations demonstrate that additional yield increases could be achieved through the introduction of rice cultivars and management optimized for climate, suggesting viable options for reversing the slowing of rice yield growth. Moving towards an agriculture that utilizes climate benefits more smartly is one of the solutions to enhance future food supply in China.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Lobell, David B.;Hammer, Graeme L.;Schlenker, Wolfram
通讯作者：
Schlenker, Wolfram
使用 EPIC 改进全球水稻产量模拟的校准程序
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Skalsky, Rastislav;Lin, Erda;Mueller, Nathan;Obersteiner, Michael
通讯作者：
Obersteiner, Michael
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
H. Tian;Chaoqun Lu;J. Melillo;W. Ren;Yao Huang;Xiaofeng Xu;Mingliang Liu;Chi Zhang;Guangsheng Chen;S. Pan;Jiyuan Liu;J. Reilly
通讯作者：
H. Tian;Chaoqun Lu;J. Melillo;W. Ren;Yao Huang;Xiaofeng Xu;Mingliang Liu;Chi Zhang;Guangsheng Chen;S. Pan;Jiyuan Liu;J. Reilly
DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2008.09.012
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Xianzeng Niu;W. Easterling;C. J. Hays;A. Jacobs;L. Mearns
通讯作者：
Xianzeng Niu;W. Easterling;C. J. Hays;A. Jacobs;L. Mearns
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Rosegrant, MW;Cline, SA
通讯作者：
Cline, SA