Climate and land use changes will degrade the distribution of Rhododendrons in China
Climate and land use changes will degrade the distribution of Rhododendrons in China
复制标题
气候和土地利用变化将导致中国杜鹃花的分布退化
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.223
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wu Zhifeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Fangyuan;Wang Tiejun;Groen Thomas A;Skidmore Andrew K;Yang Xuefei;Ma Keping;Wu Zhifeng
生物多样性的丧失和物种对气候和土地利用变化的反应的变化已经在广泛的分类群体中发现。然而，来自同一分类群但地理范围不同的物种是否会有不同的反应，人们知之甚少。本研究的目的是预测未来气候和土地利用变化对窄分布和广分布杜鹃属植物分布的潜在影响，并估计它们在中国的相对贡献。我们应用存在唯一的生态位模型MaxEnt预测分布的10个狭窄的范围和10个广泛的杜鹃花物种的2070年，使用三个大气环流模型和三种情景的气候和土地利用变化。利用变化率、核心域移动距离和方向以及Schoener's D.我们发现，6个分布范围狭窄的物种的分布面积将减少，其中一个物种将灭绝。剩下的四个狭窄的物种将经历范围扩张。所有分布广泛的杜鹃花物种的分布将减少。所有的杜鹃花都将向西北方向移动。我们的结论是，杜鹃花物种一般会受到负面影响的气候和土地利用变化预计在2070年从本研究中评估的三个方案，但一些范围狭窄的物种可能会受到积极的影响。与分布广泛的杜鹃花物种相比，分布狭窄的杜鹃花物种更容易受到伤害。这项研究表明，气候和土地利用变化对高山和亚高山植物物种的影响是物种特异性的，从而加强了我们对气候和土地利用变化对植物分布的影响的理解。
Biodiversity loss and variation in species responses to climate and land use change have been found across broad taxonomic groups. However, whether species from the same taxonomic group with distinct geographical ranges will respond differently is poorly understood. The aim of this study is to predict the potential impacts of future climate and land use change on the distribution of narrow- and wide-ranging Rhododendron species, and estimate their relative contribution in China. We applied the presence-only ecological niche model MaxEnt to predict the distribution of 10 narrow-ranging and 10 wide-ranging Rhododendron species for the year 2070, using three general circulation models and three scenarios of climate and land use change. We measured the predicted distribution change of each species using change ratio, distance and direction of core range shifts, and niche overlap using Schoener's D. We found that the distribution areas of six narrow-ranging species would decrease, of which one species would go extinct. The remaining four narrow-ranging species would experience range expansion. Distribution of all the wide-ranging Rhododendron species would decrease. All Rhododendrons will shift to the northwest. We conclude that Rhododendron species generally will be negatively affected by the climatic and land use change expected in 2070 from the three scenarios evaluated in this study, but some narrow-ranging species may be positively influenced. Narrow-ranging Rhododendron species are more vulnerable compared to wide-ranging Rhododendron species. This study demonstrated that the effects of climate and land use change on alpine and subalpine plant species is species-specific, thereby strengthening our understanding of the impacts of climate and land use change on plant distribution.