Exploring the causes of forced migration: a pooled time-series analysis 1971-1990.
Exploring the causes of forced migration: a pooled time-series analysis 1971-1990.
复制标题
探索强迫移民的原因：1971-1990 年的汇总时间序列分析。
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Susanne Schmeidl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Susanne Schmeidl
本文(1)在现有预警和预防性外交研究的基础上，建立了一个难民移民的理论模型；(2)对该模型进行了实证检验，以评估广义结构性因素在强迫移民形成过程中所起的作用。这些数据来自联合国难民事务高级专员办事处（UNHCR）和美国难民委员会（USCR）。“结果表明，对侵犯人权的制度性措施的预测能力弱于对普遍暴力的衡量。第二，与没有外部影响的内战相比，有外国军事干预的内战在产生大量难民人口和长期移民方面更为重要。第三，民族叛乱是造成少数难民迁移的重要原因，但不能显著地预测大规模外流。最后，经济和干预变量对预测难民迁移影响不大。(摘录)
This paper (1) develops a theoretical model of refugee migration that builds on existing research in early warning and preventive diplomacy and (2) empirically tests this model in order to assess the role played by generalized structural factors in the formation of forced migration. The data come from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the U.S. Committee for Refugees (USCR). "The results suggest that first measures of institutional human rights violations have weaker predictive power than do measures of generalized violence. Second civil wars with foreign military interventions are more important in producing large refugee populations and prolonged migrations than are civil wars without outside influence. Third ethnic rebellion is important as a cause of small refugee migrations but cannot significantly predict mass exodus. Finally economic and intervening variables have little impact on predicting refugee migration." (EXCERPT)