Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2
Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00536.x
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发表时间：
2002-11-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Le Quéré, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
House, JI;Prentice, IC;Le Quéré, C
在下个世纪，土地利用的变化有可能增加或减少大气中的二氧化碳浓度。在这里，我们对这些变化的最大影响进行简单但稳健的计算。历史上的土地利用变化(主要是砍伐森林)和化石燃料排放导致前工业时代至2000年间大气中二氧化碳浓度增加了90ppm。根据为政府间气候变化专门委员会制定的一系列排放情景，预计2100年的二氧化碳浓度范围比2000年的水平高170-600ppm。这一范围主要是由于对化石燃料排放的不同假设。如果到目前为止土地利用变化释放的所有碳都能恢复到陆地生物圈，那么到本世纪末，大气中的二氧化碳浓度将比没有发生这种干预的情况下减少约40-70ppm。相反，在同一时间框架内完成全球森林砍伐将使大气浓度增加约130-290ppm。这些都是极端的假设；未来50年的最大可行再造林和植树造林活动将导致到本世纪末二氧化碳浓度减少约15ppm至30ppm。因此，在可预见的未来，化石燃料排放的时间进程将是决定大气二氧化碳浓度的主要因素。
There is scope for land-use changes to increase or decrease CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere over the next century. Here we make simple but robust calculations of the maximum impact of such changes. Historical land-use changes (mostly deforestation) and fossil fuel emissions have caused an increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2 of 90 ppm between the pre-industrial era and year 2000. The projected range of CO2 concentrations in 2100, under a range of emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC, is 170-600 ppm above 2000 levels. This range is mostly due to different assumptions regarding fossil fuel emissions. If all of the carbon so far released by land-use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere, atmospheric CO2 concentration at the end of the century would be about 40-70 ppm less than it would be if no such intervention had occurred. Conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130-290 ppm. These are extreme assumptions; the maximum feasible reforestation and afforestation activities over the next 50 years would result in a reduction in CO2 concentration of about 15-30 ppm by the end of the century. Thus the time course of fossil fuel emissions will be the major factor in determining atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the foreseeable future.