Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models
Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models
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DOI：
10.1007/s00024-011-0315-1
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Kafka, Alan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chambers, Daniel W.;Baglivo, Jenny A.;Kafka, Alan L.
本文开发了一种基于隐马尔可夫模型的新方法来预测地震，并将该方法应用于加州南部和内华达州西部的主震地震活动。这些预测是对整个研究区域或特定分区域在1天、5天和10天内发生主震的可能性的预测，其依据是预测时可获得的观测结果，即前几次主震的间隔时间和位置，以及最近一次主震发生后所经过的时间。隐马尔可夫模型已被应用于许多问题，包括地震分类;这是第一次应用于地震预测。
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1, 5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one. Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application to earthquake forecasting.