Reconciling Human and Natural Drivers of the Tripole Pattern of Multidecadal Summer Temperature Variations Over Eurasia
Reconciling Human and Natural Drivers of the Tripole Pattern of Multidecadal Summer Temperature Variations Over Eurasia
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl093971
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
W. Hua;M. Qin;A. Dai;Liming Zhou;Haishan Chen;Wanxin Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Hua;M. Qin;A. Dai;Liming Zhou;Haishan Chen;Wanxin Zhang
近年来，人口稠密的欧亚大陆夏季地面气温（SAT）变化呈现出非均匀的变化格局，欧洲和东亚（EA）增暖幅度增大，而中亚（CA）增暖幅度较弱，形成了波列状结构。然而，决定这种非均匀变暖模式的关键因素仍不清楚。通过分析观测和模型模拟，我们发现，从1950年到2014年，欧洲-西亚和EA的SAT多年变化中有一半以上可能是由外部强迫引起的，而不是像以前认为的那样来自大西洋的内部变化。相比之下，最近的SAT在CA主要是受大西洋和太平洋的内部变化。大型集合模式的模拟结果表明，欧亚大陆强迫SAT的年代际变化主要是由温室气体和气溶胶的变化引起的。我们的研究结果提供了强有力的证据，外部强迫对欧亚大陆的几十年气候变化的主要影响。
The recent summer surface air temperature (SAT) changes over densely populated Eurasia exhibit a non‐uniform pattern with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia (EA) but weak warming over Central Asia (CA), forming a wave train‐like structure. However, the key factors that determine this non‐uniform warming pattern remain unclear. By analyzing observations and model simulations, here, we show that more than half of the SAT multidecadal variations from 1950 to 2014 over Europe‐west Asia and EA may have resulted from external forcing, rather than from internal variability in the Atlantic as previously thought. In contrast, the recent SAT over CA is influenced mainly by internal variations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly caused by changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our findings provide strong evidence for major impacts of external forcing on multidecadal climate variations over Eurasia.