Integrating Evacuation and Storm Surge Modeling Considering Potential Hurricane Tracks: The Case of Hurricane Irma in Southeast Florida
Integrating Evacuation and Storm Surge Modeling Considering Potential Hurricane Tracks: The Case of Hurricane Irma in Southeast Florida
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DOI：
10.3390/ijgi10100661
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Ghorbanzadeh;Linoj Vijayan;Jie Yang;E. Ozguven;Wenrui Huang;Mengdi Ma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ghorbanzadeh;Linoj Vijayan;Jie Yang;E. Ozguven;Wenrui Huang;Mengdi Ma
2017年，飓风伊尔玛不同寻常地在佛罗里达州南部登陆，飓风路径的不可预测性严重挑战了疏散进程，让许多疏散人员毫无头绪。它很可能袭击佛罗里达州东南部，但突然转向半岛西海岸，那里的疏散过程不得不立即改变，没有任何时间进行个人决策。因此，这项研究旨在开发一种方法，将疏散和风暴潮模拟与伊尔玛袭击佛罗里达州东南部的案例分析相结合。为此，使用风暴潮和波浪耦合有限元模型(ADCIRC+SWAN)确定了佛罗里达州东南部布罗沃德县、迈阿密-戴德县和棕榈滩县的淹没区域和道路。这被输入到疏散模型中，以估计区域清理时间和选定县的避难所可用性。调查结果显示，大约需要三天时间才能安全疏散研究区域内的人口。在飓风袭击该州之前对这种集成模拟进行建模，可以提供飓风多发地区的人们在发出强制疏散命令之前决定是否疏散所需的信息。
Hurricane Irma, in 2017, made an unusual landfall in South Florida and the unpredictability of the hurricane’s path challenged the evacuation process seriously and left many evacuees clueless. It was likely to hit Southeast Florida but suddenly shifted its path to the west coast of the peninsula, where the evacuation process had to change immediately without any time for individual decision-making. As such, this study aimed to develop a methodology to integrate evacuation and storm surge modeling with a case study analysis of Irma hitting Southeast Florida. For this purpose, a coupled storm surge and wave finite element model (ADCIRC+SWAN) was used to determine the inundation zones and roadways with higher inundation risk in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida. This was fed into the evacuation modeling to estimate the regional clearance times and shelter availability in the selected counties. Findings show that it takes approximately three days to safely evacuate the populations in the study area. Modeling such integrated simulations before the hurricane hit the state could provide the information people in hurricane-prone areas need to decide to evacuate or not before the mandatory evacuation order is given.