ENSO and greenhouse warming
ENSO and greenhouse warming
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2743
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Wu, Lixin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Wenju;Santoso, Agus;Wu, Lixin
厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）是影响全球极端天气条件的主要气候现象。它对温室变暖的反应几十年来一直困扰着科学家们，尽管模型对平均状态的预测变化达成了一致。最近的研究为ENSO变化与太平洋平均气候状态之间难以捉摸的联系提供了新的见解。预计沃克环流的减缓将削弱赤道太平洋洋流，增加向东传播的暖地表异常现象的发生，这是观测到的极端厄尔尼诺事件的特征。赤道太平洋加速变暖，特别是在东部，预计将导致赤道东太平洋极端降雨和太平洋辐合带极端向赤道摆动，这两者都是极端厄尔尼诺现象的特征。极端拉尼娜现象的频率预计也将增加，以应对更极端的厄尔尼诺现象、加速的海洋大陆变暖和表面加剧的海洋变暖。因此，与enso相关的灾难性天气事件可能在温室气体排放未减少的情况下更频繁地发生。但是模型偏差和最近观察到的Walker环流的加强强调了随着新模型、观察和见解的出现，进一步测试的必要性。
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Nino events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Nino. The frequency of extreme La Nina is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Ninos, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.