Ridesharing and Motor Vehicle Crashes in 4 US Cities: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis
Ridesharing and Motor Vehicle Crashes in 4 US Cities: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwx233
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wiebe, Douglas J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morrison, Christopher N.;Jacoby, Sara F.;Wiebe, Douglas J.
据报道，自2010年开始运营以来，全球最大的拼车公司Uber已在全球提供了超过20亿次出行;然而，对机动车碰撞的影响尚不清楚。从理论上讲，在其他交通方式不如在酒精影响下驾驶自己的车辆吸引力大的地方，拼车可以减少与酒精有关的撞车事故。我们使用每周伤害事故计数和美国4个城市（内华达州的拉斯维加斯、内华达州的里诺、俄勒冈州的波特兰和得克萨斯州的圣安东尼奥）涉及酒精的比例进行了中断时间序列分析。我们认为，在暂时中断后恢复Uber运营将比最初启动时产生更大的乘客量变化，因此我们选择了Uber启动，停止，然后恢复运营的城市（2013-2016）。我们假设，Uber的恢复将与更少的酒精相关的撞车事故有关。结果部分支持这一假设。例如，在波特兰，Uber的恢复与酒精相关的事故率下降61.8%（95%置信区间：38.7，86.4）相关（每周绝对减少3.1（95%置信区间：1.7，4.4）酒精相关的事故）;然而，所有伤害事故没有随之而来的变化。随着时间的推移，拼车和机动车碰撞之间的关系在城市之间有所不同，可能取决于具体的地方特征。
Uber, the world's largest ridesharing company, has reportedly provided over 2 billion journeys globally since operations began in 2010; however, the impact on motor vehicle crashes is unclear. Theoretically, ridesharing could reduce alcohol-involved crashes in locations where other modes of transportation are less attractive than driving one's own vehicle while under the influence of alcohol. We conducted interrupted time-series analyses using weekly counts of injury crashes and the proportion that were alcohol-involved in 4 US cities (Las Vegas, Nevada; Reno, Nevada; Portland, Oregon; and San Antonio, Texas). We considered that a resumption of Uber operations after a temporary break would produce a more substantial change in ridership than an initial launch, so we selected cities where Uber launched, ceased, and then resumed operations (2013-2016). We hypothesized that Uber's resumption would be associated with fewer alcohol-involved crashes. Results partially supported this hypothesis. For example, in Portland, Uber's resumption was associated with a 61.8% reduction (95% confidence interval: 38.7, 86.4) in the alcohol-involved crash rate (an absolute decrease of 3.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.7, 4.4) alcohol-involved crashes per week); however, there was no concomitant change in all injury crashes. Relationships between ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes differ between cities over time and may depend on specific local characteristics.