Uncertainty in continental‐scale temperature predictions
Uncertainty in continental‐scale temperature predictions
复制标题
大陆尺度温度预测的不确定性
DOI：
10.1029/2005gl024423
复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Stott;J. Kettleborough;M. Allen
世界上所有有人居住的大陆的大陆尺度区域都检测到了人为气候变化。根据温室气体和其他强迫对观测到的温度变化的相对贡献的知识，可以推断出未来变暖的可能速率，这与过去观测到的温度变化一致。通过假设这些空间尺度上过去和未来的温度变化分数误差之间存在线性关系，计算了六个大陆尺度区域未来变暖率的概率预测。预计所有地区在下个世纪都会变暖，未来变暖速度的最大不确定性将出现在北美和欧洲。如果假设全球平均温度变化中的分数误差缩放区域预测，则可以获得更严格约束的预测。
Anthropogenic climate change has been detected on continental‐scale regions on all inhabited continents of the World. From knowledge of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases and other forcings to observed temperature change it is possible to infer the likely rates of future warming, consistent with past observed temperature changes. Probabilistic forecasts of future warming rates in six continental‐scale regions have been calculated by assuming that there is a linear relationship between past and future fractional error in temperature change on these spatial scales. All regions are expected to warm over the next century with the largest uncertainty in future warming rates being in North America and Europe. More tightly constrained predictions are obtained if it is assumed that fractional errors in global mean temperature change scale the regional projections.