Are Bond-financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis
Are Bond-financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis
复制标题
债券融资的赤字是否会导致通货膨胀？
DOI：
10.1086/261211
复制
发表时间：
1982
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
B. Mccallum
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Mccallum
本文考虑了以下“货币主义假说”的理论正确性：如果政府预算赤字是通过发行债券而不是货币融资，那么它可以永久地保持正赤字，而且不会出现通货膨胀。这个问题是在Sidrauski竞争均衡模型的离散时间、完美预见版本中研究的，该模型被纳入政府债券作为第三种资产进行了修改。结果表明，如果赤字的定义不包括利息支付，货币主义者的假设是无效的，但在传统的定义下它是有效的。它还表明，债券存量可以以高于产出增长率的速度无限期增长，前提是两者的差额小于时间偏好的速度。这些正式的结论没有考虑到违约激励对征税能力可能产生的限制，违约激励往往会随着债券存量的增加而增长。
This paper considers the possible theoretical validity of the following "monetarist hypothesis": that a constant, positive government budget deficit can be maintained permanently and without inflation if it is financed by the issue of bonds rather than money. The question is studied in a discrete-time, perfect-foresight version of the competitive equilibrium model of Sidrauski, modified by the inclusion of government bonds as a third asset. It is shown that the monetarist hypothesis is invalid if the deficit is defined exclusive of interest payments, but that it is valid under the conventional definition. It is also shown that the stock of bonds can grow indefinitely at a rate in excess of the rate of output growth, provided that the difference is less than the rate of time preference. These formal conclusions do not take account of possible limitations on taxing capacity arising from default incentives that tend to grow with the stock of bonds.