Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin
Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-013-0760-8
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发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Sidong Zeng;J. Xia;Hong Du
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sidong Zeng;J. Xia;Hong Du
分离气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的研究大多是在年尺度上进行的，很少有不同时间尺度的分析，这对于区域水资源管理尤为重要。研究了气候变化和人类活动对张河流域年、季、月时间尺度径流变化的影响。首先，分析了不同时间尺度水文气候序列的变化趋势和拐点。然后采用基于水文建模的方法和基于灵敏度的方法对影响进行分离。结果表明，气候变化对年径流变化的影响强于人类活动。在季节尺度上，径流的驱动因素是不同的。在雨季，人类活动对径流的影响大于气候变化，占57%，而在旱季，气候变化是径流减少的主导因素，贡献率为72%。此外，气候变化和人类活动对月径流变化的影响在不同月份有所不同。本研究的不同时间尺度上的分离效应可为该流域不同时间尺度的水资源适应性管理提供更科学的依据。
Most studies on separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff are mainly conducted at an annual scale with few analyses over different time scales, which is especially essential for regional water resources management. This paper investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales in the Zhang River basin in North China. Firstly, the changing trends and inflection point are analyzed for hydro-climatic series over different time scales. Then the hydrological modeling based method and sensitivity based method are used to separate the effects. The results show that the effect of climate change is stronger than that of human activities on annual runoff changes. However, the driving factors on runoff are different at seasonal scale. In the wet season, the effect of human activities on runoff, accounting for 57 %, is stronger than that of climate change, while in the dry season climate change is the dominant factor for runoff reduction and the contribution rate is 72 %. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and human activities on monthly runoff changes are various in different months. The separated effects over different time scales in this study may provide more scientific basis for the water resources adaptive management over different time scales in this basin.