An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission
An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.03.038
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发表时间：
2009-08-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Merler, Stefano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ajelli, Marco;Merler, Stefano
甲型病毒性肝炎与其他地方病一样，是全世界公共卫生的优先事项。为了通过基于个体的模拟来研究长期规模的人类病原体，需要开发动态的接触网络。在这项工作中，我们引入了一个以个人为基础的模型占出生和死亡的个人，新的家庭的一代，和个人的教育生涯，以调查病毒性肝炎A在意大利受影响最严重的地区的动态。干预措施，如有针对性的疫苗接种，社会距离措施（e。例如，在一个实施例中，关闭日托中心和幼儿园）以及生活和卫生标准的改善情况进行评估。结果表明，非常低的疫苗接种覆盖率足以控制意大利的甲型肝炎，而由于新病例不断从国外的高流行地区输入，因此不可能消除甲型肝炎。最后，所考虑的社交距离措施可能适得其反，因为在感染年龄增加的情况下，康复者的比例并没有下降，从而增加了出现急性症状的可能性。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Viral hepatitis A, as other endemic diseases, represents a public health priority worldwide. To study long-time scale human pathogens through individual-based simulations, the development of a dynamic network of contacts is required. In this work, we introduce an individual-based model accounting for the birth and death of the individuals, the generation of new households, and the educational career of the individuals, in order to investigate viral hepatitis A dynamics in the most affected Italian areas. Intervention options such as targeted vaccination, social distancing measures (e. g., closure of day care centers and kindergartens) and improvements in standards of living and hygiene are evaluated. Results show that a very low vaccination coverage is sufficient to control hepatitis A in Italy, while its elimination is not possible since new cases are continuously imported from high endemicity areas outside the country. Finally, the considered social distancing measures can be counter productive since the fraction of recovered individuals does not decline while the age at infection increases, thus augmenting the probability of developing acute symptoms. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.