Airline networks and the international diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
Airline networks and the international diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1475-4959.2006.00196.x
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Laroe, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bowen, John T., Jr.;Laroe, Christian
2003年不到四个月的时间，严重急性呼吸系统综合症（SARS）从中国传播到25个国家和台湾，成为二十一世纪第一个新的、易传播的传染病。航空运输在疾病传播中的作用在危机初期就变得显而易见；为了更仔细地评估这一作用，本研究将 SARS 爆发的时空模式与航空公司网络可达性的衡量标准联系起来。具体来说，从中国开始，从受SARS感染的国家到其他国家的可达性是通过航班时刻表来衡量的。国家对可及性衡量标准以及与该疾病相关的其他国家级因素都经过测试，作为 SARS 到达受感染国家的速度以及未能到达大多数国家的决定因素。分析表明，航空公司网络的可达性是一个特别有影响力的变量，但该变量的重要性在疫情爆发的最后几周有所减弱。后一个发现部分归因于公共卫生措施，特别是机场的健康检查。这些措施的时间和地点是根据疫情期间媒体报道和世界卫生组织（WHO）临时文件中的数据进行审查的。遏制 SARS 国际传播的努力不均衡，表明需要进一步规划，制定协调一致的应对措施，以遏制未来的流行病。
In fewer than four months in 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread from China to 25 countries and Taiwan, becoming the first new, easily transmissible infectious disease of the twenty-first century. The role of air transport in the diffusion of the disease became obvious early in the crisis; to assess that role more carefully, this study relates the spatial-temporal pattern of the SARS outbreak to a measure of airline network accessibility. Specifically, the accessibility from those countries that were infected by SARS, beginning with China, to other countries was measured using airline schedules. The country-pair accessibility measure, along with other country-level factors relevant to the disease, were tested as determinants of the speed with which SARS arrived in infected countries as well as its failure to arrive in most countries. The analyses indicate that airline network accessibility was an especially influential variable but also that the importance of this variable diminished in the latter weeks of the outbreak. The latter finding is partly attributable to public health measures, particularly health screening in airports. The timing and geography of those measures are reviewed using data from media reports and interim World Health Organization (WHO) documents during the outbreak. The uneven effort to curtail the international diffusion of SARS suggests further planning is needed to develop a concerted response to contain future epidemics.