Annual precipitation since 515 BC reconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province, China
Annual precipitation since 515 BC reconstructed from living and fossil juniper growth of northeastern Qinghai Province, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-004-0473-2
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发表时间：
2004-11
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
P. Sheppard;P. Tarasov;L. Graumlich;L. Graumlich;K. Heussner;Mayke Wagner;H. Österle;L. Thompson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Sheppard;P. Tarasov;L. Graumlich;L. Graumlich;K. Heussner;Mayke Wagner;H. Österle;L. Thompson
根据现存的和考古学上的杜松重建了青海东北部过去2,500年的年降水量。该地区降水的一个主要特征是年、十年和百年尺度的平均降雨量具有高度的变异性，有许多由其他古气候指标证实的干湿期。重建的年降水量变化范围大多在100 ~ 300 mm之间，与都兰现代仪器记录基本一致。然而，相对干燥的年份，低于平均降水量发生在过去比现在更频繁。相对干旱的年份发生在公元前74- 25年、公元51 -375年、公元426-500年、公元526-575年、公元626-700年、公元1100-1225年、公元1251-1325年、公元1451-1525年、公元1651-1750年和公元1801-1825年。气候相对湿润的时期出现在公元376 -425年、公元576-625年、公元951-1050年、公元1351-1375年、公元1551-1600年和现在。这种变化可能与冬季锋面风暴的纬度位置有关。该地区降水的另一个关键特征是降水的年际变化与温度之间存在明显的直接关系，未来变暖可能导致洪水和干旱的增加。这种增加的气候变化可能会影响该地区的人类社会，就像过去2,500年的气候一样。
Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74–25BC,AD51–375, 426–500, 526–575, 626–700, 1100–1225, 1251–1325, 1451–1525, 1651–1750 and 1801–1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred duringAD376–425, 576–625, 951–1050, 1351–1375, 1551–1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.