An individual-based model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission on the coast of Kenya
An individual-based model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission on the coast of Kenya
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DOI：
10.1016/s0035-9203(03)90018-6
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Beier, JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gu, WD;Killeen, GF;Beier, JC
基于个体的模型提供了强大的工具来模拟以个体变异性为特征的复杂交互作用。本文提出了一种基于个体的恶性疟传播模型的面向对象设计方法。定义了两种对象，人和蚊子，它们在恢复和存活率等参数方面在个体之间表现出变异性。该模型分别跟踪人类宿主和成年雌性蚊子的动态。免疫力是暴露史的函数，表现为敏感度降低和恢复率提高。该模型使用在肯尼亚沿海30个地点收集的流行病学数据进行了校准。根据平均每天的咬人率，这些地点被分为低、中和高三种传播方式。模拟结果表明，即使在低传播率地区，人叮咬率约为每天0.5口，疟疾传播也是稳定的。该模型被用来审查旨在通过减少人-媒介接触率和实施主动病例检测和感染药物治疗来阻断传播的感染控制方案的效果。有了这项干预措施，当地很可能消灭疟疾，低传播率地区的灭绝概率约为0.8%。然而，少量(0.3%)受感染者迁入社区可以防止寄生虫在当地灭绝。在中高传播地区，流行率的下降是短暂的，即使在干预的高覆盖率水平，当地消除的可能性也很低。
Individual-based models provide powerful tools to model complex interactions characterized by individual variability. This paper presents an object-oriented design for individual-based modelling of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. Two kinds of objects, human and mosquito, that exhibit variability among individuals for parameters such as recovery and survival rates are defined. The model tracks the dynamics of human hosts and adult female mosquitoes individually. Immunity, modelled as a function of exposure history, is represented by reduced susceptibility and increased recovery rate. The model was calibrated using epidemiological data collected at 30 sites along the coast of Kenya. The sites were grouped into low, intermediate and high transmission based on mean daily human-biting rates. Simulation results show that malaria transmission was stable even in low transmission areas where the human-biting rate is approximately 0.5 bite per day. The model was used to examine the effect of infection control programmes that aim at interrupting transmission by reducing human-vector contact rates and implementing active case detection and drug treatment of infections. With this intervention, local elimination of malaria is likely with a probability of extinction of approximately 0.8 in low transmission areas. However, a small amount of immigration (> 0.3%) by infected people into the community could prevent local extinction of the parasite. In intermediate and high transmission areas, reduction in prevalence is short-lived and the probability of local elimination is low, even at high coverage levels of the intervention.