Pathogen evolution following spillover from a resident to a migrant host population depends on interactions between host pace of life and tolerance to infection
Pathogen evolution following spillover from a resident to a migrant host population depends on interactions between host pace of life and tolerance to infection
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.14075
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发表时间：
2024-03-10
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Shaw，Allison K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Torstenson，Martha;Shaw，Allison K.
迁移路线和物候的变化在宿主和病原体之间产生了新的接触模式。这些新的接触模式可能导致病原体在居民和移民人群之间蔓延。预测这种病原体溢出事件的后果需要了解病原体的演变如何取决于宿主的运动行为。在溢出后，病原体可能会在其传播率和毒力表型方面发生变化，因为居民和移民宿主群体倾向于采用不同的策略。关于这些差异可能是什么，目前的理论预测存在冲突。一些理论预测，由于移民对感染的耐受性较低，因此移民人群中的病原体毒力和传播率较低。其他理论工作预测了更高的病原体毒力和移民中的传播率，因为移民与易感宿主有更多的接触。我们的目标是了解对感染的耐受性和宿主生活节奏的差异如何共同作用，以确定病原体从居民向移民人群溢出后病原体的进化方向。我们构建了一个空间隐式模型，在该模型中，我们研究了病原体策略如何随着时间的推移而变化。增加移民人口。我们研究了居民和移民对感染的耐受性和生活节奏的差异如何决定溢出对病原体进化和宿主种群规模的影响，当移民和居民宿主的生活节奏相同时，移民感染的较大成本导致溢出后病原体传播率和毒力较低。当移民和常住人口对感染的耐受性相等时，移民生活节奏加快会导致传播率增加，并在溢出后造成毒力增加。然而，相反的情况也可能发生：当流动人口对感染的耐受性较低时，更快的流动生活节奏可能导致传播率和毒力下降。预测病原体溢出的结果需要考虑人口之间对感染的耐受性和生活节奏的差异。同样重要的是要考虑人口的移动模式如何影响宿主接触病原体的机会。这些结果对野生动物保护、农业和人类健康具有重要意义。
Changes to migration routes and phenology create novel contact patterns among hosts and pathogens. These novel contact patterns can lead to pathogens spilling over between resident and migrant populations. Predicting the consequences of such pathogen spillover events requires understanding how pathogen evolution depends on host movement behaviour. Following spillover, pathogens may evolve changes in their transmission rate and virulence phenotypes because different strategies are favoured by resident and migrant host populations. There is conflict in current theoretical predictions about what those differences might be. Some theory predicts lower pathogen virulence and transmission rates in migrant populations because migrants have lower tolerance to infection. Other theoretical work predicts higher pathogen virulence and transmission rates in migrants because migrants have more contacts with susceptible hosts.We aim to understand how differences in tolerance to infection and host pace of life act together to determine the direction of pathogen evolution following pathogen spillover from a resident to a migrant population.We constructed a spatially implicit model in which we investigate how pathogen strategy changes following the addition of a migrant population. We investigate how differences in tolerance to infection and pace of life between residents and migrants determine the effect of spillover on pathogen evolution and host population size.When the paces of life of the migrant and resident hosts are equal, larger costs of infection in the migrants lead to lower pathogen transmission rate and virulence following spillover. When the tolerance to infection in migrant and resident populations is equal, faster migrant paces of life lead to increased transmission rate and virulence following spillover. However, the opposite can also occur: when the migrant population has lower tolerance to infection, faster migrant paces of life can lead to decreases in transmission rate and virulence.Predicting the outcomes of pathogen spillover requires accounting for both differences in tolerance to infection and pace of life between populations. It is also important to consider how movement patterns of populations affect host contact opportunities for pathogens. These results have implications for wildlife conservation, agriculture and human health.