Atmospheric teleconnections and flow regimes under future climate projections
Atmospheric teleconnections and flow regimes under future climate projections
复制标题
未来气候预测下的大气遥相关和流动状况
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Dethloff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Handorf;K. Dethloff
本文从遥相关型和大气流态的角度分析了冬季北方对流层中层大气流场的低频变率。用相关分析和经验正交函数分析两种不同的方法确定了它们的关联模式。流态已被确定通过分析的结构的球形概率密度函数在一个低维的状态空间跨越的三个领先的经验正交函数。为了评估最先进的大气-海洋环流耦合模式（AOGCMs）的能力，分析了为政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告进行的对当今条件的多模式模拟。与观测结果的比较表明，先进的AOGCM能够真实地描述遥相关和流型的低频变率。对未来气候情景的模拟分析揭示了行动中心力量的变化。关于气候机制，出现了两个新的机制，此外，在一些机制的结构中发现了轻微的变化。
This paper presents an analysis of the low-frequency variability of the midtropospheric atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere during winter in terms of teleconnection patterns and atmospheric flow regimes. Teleconnection patterns have been determined by two different methods, correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Flow regimes have been determined by analysing the structure of a spherical probability density function in a low-dimensional state space spanned by the three leading empirical orthogonal functions. To assess the ability of state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), multi-model simulations for present day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been analysed. The comparison with observations reveals, that state-of-the-art AOGCMs are able to describe the low-frequency variability in terms of teleconnections and flow regimes realistically. The analyses of simulations for future climate scenarios reveal changes in the strengths of the centers of action. Concerning climate regimes, two new regimes appear and additionally, slight changes were found in the structure of some regimes.