Avalanche Prediction in a Self-Organized Pile of Beads
Avalanche Prediction in a Self-Organized Pile of Beads
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevlett.102.078701
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发表时间：
2009-02-20
影响因子：
8.6
通讯作者：
Maloy, K. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ramos, O.;Altshuler, E.;Maloy, K. J.
人们普遍认为，按幂规律分布的雪崩本质上是不可预测的。这一观点影响了从原子到社会尺度的各种现象，如进化、地震、超导涡旋、股票市场等。它主要来自“自组织临界性”(SOC)的概念，在SOC中，临界性的解释是，在任何时刻，任何小的雪崩最终都可能级联成大事件。然而，这项工作在实验上证明了在经典的SOC范式中进行雪崩预测的可能性：一堆谷物。通过知道每个颗粒在二维堆积中的位置，移动的颗粒的雪崩遵循不同的幂规律分布。大型雪崩虽然不相关，但平均而言，在大雪崩之前，桩的内部结构会出现连续的、可检测的变化，并对这些变化进行监测，以实现预测。
It is a common belief that power-law distributed avalanches are inherently unpredictable. This idea affects phenomena as diverse as evolution, earthquakes, superconducting vortices, stock markets, etc., from atomic to social scales. It mainly comes from the concept of "self-organized criticality" (SOC), where criticality is interpreted in the way that, at any moment, any small avalanche can eventually cascade into a large event. Nevertheless, this work demonstrates experimentally the possibility of avalanche prediction in the classical paradigm of SOC: a pile of grains. By knowing the position of every grain in a two-dimensional pile, avalanches of moving grains follow a distinct power-law distribution. Large avalanches, although uncorrelated, are on average preceded by continuous, detectable variations in the internal structure of the pile that are monitored in order to achieve prediction.