Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes
Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes
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场景原型：主题趋同而不是发散
DOI：
10.3390/wsf-00720
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Whyatt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Hunt;R. Farmani;Rachelle Lombardi;Stuart Atkinson;A. Barber;M. Barnes;C. Boyko;Julie Brown;J. Bryson;D. Butler;S. Caputo;Maria Caserio;R. Coles;C. Weingartner;M. Gaterell;J. Hale;Chantal Hayes;N. Hewitt;L. Jankovic;I. Jefferson;R. Mackenzie;F. Memon;T. Pugh;C. Rogers;D. Whyatt
未来的情景提供了关于未来如何展开的具有挑战性的，合理的和相关的故事。城市未来（UF）的研究已经确定了大量（>450）在1997年至2011年期间发表的看似不同的情景，在这项研究中，一个子集>160情景已经确定根据全球设想小组1997年首次提出的结构，根据其叙述进行（和分类）;三种世界类型（商业作为私有化，野蛮化和大转型）和六种情景，每种世界类型两种（政策改革-PR，市场力量-MF，分解-B，堡垒世界-FW，生态社区主义-EC和新的可持续发展范式-NSP）。有人建议，这些场景原型（MF，PR，NSP和FW）是足够不同的，以促进积极的利益相关者参与未来的思考。此外，它们还伴随着一套完善的、内部一致的叙述，这些叙述提供了对关键基本驱动因素的更深入理解（例如，STEEP-社会，技术，经济，环境和政治），可以通过推动或拉动效应带来现实的世界变化。这证明了GSG情景的原始概念及其在16年期间的发展和完善。
Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.