"Counting your customers" the easy way: An alternative to the Pareto/NBD model
"Counting your customers" the easy way: An alternative to the Pareto/NBD model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1287/mksc.1040.0098
复制
发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Lee, KL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fader, PS;Hardie, BGS;Lee, KL
今天的管理者对预测客户未来的购买模式非常感兴趣，然后可以将其作为“终身价值”计算的输入。在提供此类功能的模型中，Schmittlein 等人提出的 Pareto/NBD“计算您的客户”框架。 （1987）受到高度评价。然而，尽管它赢得了尊重，但事实证明它是一个难以实现的模型，特别是因为与参数估计相关的计算挑战。我们开发了一种新模型，β-几何/NBD (BG/NBD)，它代表了与 Pareto/NBD 相关的行为“故事”的细微变化，但更容易实现。例如，我们展示了如何在 Microsoft Excel 中轻松获取其参数。这两个模型在各种购买环境中产生非常相似的结果，因此我们建议在大多数应用中 BG/NBD 可以被视为 Pareto/NBD 的有吸引力的替代方案。
Today's managers are very interested in predicting the future purchasing patterns of their customers, which can then serve as an input into "lifetime value" calculations. Among the models that provide such capabilities, the Pareto/NBD "counting your customers" framework proposed by Schmittlein et al. (1987) is highly regarded. However, despite the respect it has earned, it has proven to be a difficult model to implement, particularly because of computational challenges associated with parameter estimation.We develop a new model, the beta-geometric/NBD (BG/NBD), which represents a slight variation in the behavioral "story" associated with the Pareto/NBD but is vastly easier to implement. We show, for instance, how its parameters can be obtained quite easily in Microsoft Excel. The two models yield very similar results in a wide variety of purchasing environments, leading us to suggest that the BG/NBD could be viewed as an attractive alternative to the Pareto/NBD in most applications.