Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870-2014
Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870-2014
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DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.006
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Trebesch, Christoph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Funke, Manuel;Schularick, Moritz;Trebesch, Christoph
党派冲突和政策不确定性经常被认为是造成危机后复苏缓慢的因素。欧洲最近发生的事件提供了充分的证据，表明金融危机的政治余震可能很严重。在本文中，我们研究了过去140年来系统性金融危机的政治后果。我们构建了一个新的长期数据集，涵盖20个发达经济体和800多个大选。我们的主要发现是，金融危机后，随着政府多数的缩小和两极分化的加剧，政策的不确定性大幅上升。在危机之后，选民似乎特别被极右翼的政治言论所吸引，这些言论往往将责任归咎于少数民族或外国人。平均而言，极右翼政党在金融危机后的选票份额增加了30%。重要的是，我们在正常的衰退中或在严重的非金融性质的宏观经济冲击之后没有观察到类似的政治动态。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic financial crises over the past 140 years. We construct a new long-run dataset covering 20 advanced economies and more than 800 general elections. Our key finding is that policy uncertainty rises strongly after financial crises as government majorities shrink and polarization rises. After a crisis, voters seem to be particularly attracted to the political rhetoric of the extreme right, which often attributes blame to minorities or foreigners. On average, far-right parties increase their vote share by 30% after a financial crisis. Importantly, we do not observe similar, political dynamics in normal recessions or after severe macroeconomic shocks that are not financial in nature. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.