IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentration to Low Levels
IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentration to Low Levels
复制标题
将温室气体浓度限制在较低水平的图像和消息场景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Vliet
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shilpa Rao;K. Riahi;E. Stehfest;D. P. Vuuren;C. Cho;M. Elzen;M. Isaac;J. Vliet
本报告在使用两种综合评估模型(消息和图像)的分析基础上，讨论了低温室气体浓度水平的可达性。进行了模型运行，探索了在2100年达到比工业化前水平高2.6至2.9W/m2的辐射强迫水平的可行性。如此低的目标是必要的，以将全球平均气温上升控制在2摄氏度以下，与工业化前的水平相比，可能性很大。该分析系统地审查了关于关键不确定性的低目标的实现情况，包括替代基线发展路径、不同技术的可获得性、生物能源的排放以及林业和土地利用假设的影响。进行了一些敏感性测试，以测试实现低温室气体浓度目标的稳健性。详细讨论了这两个模型的结果，包括能量分布和与这种低稳定度目标一致的发射路径。
This report discusses the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentrations levels based on an analysis using two integrated assessment models (MESSAGE and IMAGE). Model runs were preformed which explored the feasibility of reaching radiative forcing levels in 2100 between 2.6 to 2.9 W/m2 above pre-industrial levels. Such low targets are necessary to limit global mean temperature increase to below 2oC compared to pre-industrial levels with high probability. The analysis examines the attainability of low targets systematically with respect to key uncertainties, including alternative baseline development pathways, availability of different technologies, emissions of bio-energy, and impacts of forestry and land use assumptions. A number of sensitivity tests were carried out to test the robustness of achieving low GHG concentration targets. The results from the two models are discussed in detail comprising energy profiles and emission pathways consistent with such low stabilization targets.