Comparison of Thermal Performance Equations in Describing Temperature-Dependent Developmental Rates of Insects: (I) Empirical Models
Comparison of Thermal Performance Equations in Describing Temperature-Dependent Developmental Rates of Insects: (I) Empirical Models
复制标题
描述昆虫温度依赖性发育速率的热性能方程的比较：（一）经验模型
DOI：
10.1093/aesa/sav121
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Ge, Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shi, Pei-Jian;Reddy, Gadi V. P.;Ge, Feng
温度对昆虫不同发育阶段的发育历期有很大的影响，已有许多数学模型可以用来描述昆虫发育速率与温度的关系。气候变化条件下，选择合适的预测模型对害虫大发生的预测具有重要意义。然而，以前这些模型之间的比较通常是基于单个物种。在本研究中，我们比较了六个非线性模型（Briere-1，Briere-2，Lactin，Performance-2，beta和Ratkowsky模型）的拟合优度和模型的拟合优度与结构复杂性之间的权衡，使用10个温度依赖的昆虫发育速率数据集，使结论具有普遍性。我们发现平方根模型（即，Ratkowsky模型）很好地拟合了所有数据集，并且由该模型产生的曲线形状也近似于基于几何的数学模型的曲线形状。平方根模型最初是为了适用于细菌的生长速率而推导出来的，直到现在，它在昆虫学中一直被普遍忽视。我们主要关注的是通过使用这个模型对温度依赖的发育速率的观测所获得的预测结果。我们发现平方根模型很好地描述了在低，中，高温范围内的合并发育率，我们相信它值得在昆虫学中更广泛地使用。
Temperature greatly affects the developmental duration of insects at their different stages, and many mathematical models exist for describing their temperature-dependent developmental rates. It is important to choose a suitable model to predict outbreaks of pest insects under climate change. However, previous comparisons among these models were usually based on a single species. In the present study, we compared the six nonlinear models (the Briere-1, Briere-2, Lactin, Performance-2, beta, and Ratkowsky models) based on the goodness of fit and the trade-off between the model's goodness of fit and structural complexity, using 10 temperature-dependent developmental rate datasets on insects to make the conclusions general. We found that the square root model (i.e., the Ratkowsky model) fitted all datasets well, and the curve shape produced by this model also approximates the curve shape of thermodynamically based mathematical models. The square root model was originally derived to be applicable to the growth rates of bacteria, and until now it has been generally ignored in entomology. We were mainly concerned with the predicted results obtained by using this model on observations of temperature-dependent developmental rates. We found that the square root model described well the pooled developmental rates in the low-, mid-, and high-temperature ranges, and we believe that it merits wider use in entomology.