MODELS FOR TEMPORAL VARIATION IN CANCER RATES .2. AGE PERIOD COHORT MODELS
MODELS FOR TEMPORAL VARIATION IN CANCER RATES .2. AGE PERIOD COHORT MODELS
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780060406
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发表时间：
1987-06-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
SCHIFFLERS, E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CLAYTON, D;SCHIFFLERS, E
我们的第一篇论文回顾了在一般倍增风险模型中，根据时期效应或队列效应对癌症发病率和死亡率变化进行建模的方法。在那里，我们提请注意将常规趋势归因于时期或队列影响的困难。在本文中，我们转向更现实的问题，其中无论是时期或队列效应单独导致足够的数据描述。我们描述了年龄-时期-队列模型，并展示了它的模糊性如何围绕定期趋势“加强”。我们建议的方法来呈现基于这个模型的分析结果，最大限度地减少误导性影响的严重风险，并严格审查以前的建议。讨论说明了在日本的乳腺癌死亡率的分析，特别提到的现象“克莱姆森的钩”。
Our first paper reviewed methods for modelling variation in cancer incidence and mortality rates in terms of either period effects or cohort effects in the general multiplicative risk model. There we drew attention to the difficulty of attributing regular trends to either period or cohort influences. In this paper we turn to the more realistic problem in which neither period nor cohort effects alone lead to an adequate description of the data. We describe the age-period-cohort model and show how its ambiguities surrounding regular trends ''intensify''. We recommend methods for presenting the results of analyses based upon this model which minimize the serious risk of misleading implications and critically review previous suggestions. The discussion is illustrated by an analysis of breast cancer mortality in Japan with special reference to the phenomenon of ''Clemmesen''s hook''.