Enterprise behaviour under Cap-and-Trade conditions: an experimental study with system dynamic models
Enterprise behaviour under Cap-and-Trade conditions: an experimental study with system dynamic models
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DOI：
10.1057/jos.2014.36
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发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
M. Zhou;Y. Pan;Z. Chen;B. Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Zhou;Y. Pan;Z. Chen;B. Li
在总量管制和交易方案的条件下运营，通过对资源/能源的获取和处置施加更多限制，以减少温室气体排放，给追求绿色可持续发展的工业组织带来了新的挑战。因条件而产生的新因素与系统生产/服务功能相互作用，产生复杂的动态关系，显著影响参与企业的整体绩效。管理者现在必须在生产、经济和绿色改进之间取得平衡。这项研究展示了一种基于系统动力学建模的主动方法来表示这样的复杂系统，并分析它们之间的关系，以探索在相关条件下驱动系统行为的基本逻辑。该分析为决策者或政策制定者追求环境友好和经济无害的生产提供了有用的见解。开发了概念模型并对其功能进行了验证，并设计了模拟实验来实施这些模型并比较不同的策略，以分析它们对系统整体性能的影响，例如长期超额排放、持续的减排绿色投资以及购买排放津贴或支付罚款的成本(通过超额排污税)。
Operating under Cap-and-Trade programme conditions has brought new challenges to industrial organizations pursuing green sustainable development by imposing more constraints on resource/energy acquisition and disposition in order to reduce green-house-gas emissions. New factors due to the conditions interact with each other and system production/service functions, causing complicated dynamic relationships that significantly affect the overall performance of participating enterprises. Managers now have to balance production economy and green improvement. This research shows a proactive approach based on system dynamics modelling to represent such complex systems and analyse the relationship to explore the underlining logic that drives system behaviour under related conditions. The analysis provides useful insights for decision or policymakers to pursue environmentally friendly and economically sound production. Conceptual models were developed and verified for functions, and simulation experiments were designed to implement the models and compare different strategies to analyse their impact on the system’s overall performance, such as long-term over-emission, continuous green investment on emissions reduction, and cost of purchasing emissions allowance or paying penalty (via over-emission tax).