European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013
European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdt010
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Bertuccio, P.;Negri, E.
背景：公布了2011年和2012年欧盟（EU）及其六个人口大国的估计癌症死亡率统计数据。患者和方法：使用对数泊松计数数据连接点模型和世界卫生组织死亡率和人口数据库，我们估计了2013年所有癌症和选定癌症的死亡人数和年龄标准化（世界）死亡率（ASRs）。结果：2013年欧盟癌症死亡预测人数为1 314 296人（男性737 747人，女性576 489人）。在2009年至2013年期间，预计所有癌症asr在男性中下降6%至140.1/10万，在女性中下降4%至85.3/10万。每10万人的ASRs分别为：胃6.6男性和2.9女性，肠16.7男性和9.5女性，胰腺8.0男性和5.5女性，肺37.1男性和13.9女性，前列腺10.5男性，乳腺癌14.6女性，子宫癌4.7，白血病4.2和2.6。除了女性的胰腺癌和肺癌外，最近的趋势是有利的。结论：良好的趋势将在2013年继续。胰腺癌已成为男女癌症死亡的第四大原因，而在几年内，肺癌可能也将超过乳腺癌，成为妇女癌症死亡的第一大原因。
Background: Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries.Patients and methods: Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers.Results: The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women.Conclusions: Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer.